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Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-30 19:16:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO MAZATLAN... As of 12:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 23.3, -106.6 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 9A
2019-09-30 19:16:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301716 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1200 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA STRENGTHENS AS IT MOVES VERY CLOSE TO MAZATLAN... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM MDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.3N 106.6W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WNW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Guaymas * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM MDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 106.6 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little additional change in strength is expected before Narda interacts with the coast of mainland Mexico. Weakening should begin on Tuesday as Narda moves along the coast. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 49 mph (80 km/h) was reported at Mazatlan within the past few hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-09-30 19:16:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 17:16:36 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:31:34 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics
2019-09-30 17:00:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:00:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 15:00:31 GMT
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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-09-30 16:59:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 301459 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Narda Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 Recent microwave data and surface observations from Mexico indicate that the center of Narda is located just offshore of the west coast of mainland Mexico, north of Islas Marias. The cyclone continues to produce a large area of deep convection near and to the west of its center. The latest Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB support tropical storm strength, so the initial intensity has been raised to 35 kt, making Narda a tropical storm once again. An automated observing site near San Blas, Mexico recently reported a wind gust to 38 kt, and a pressure of 1002.8 mb was observed at Islas Marias earlier this morning. Some additional strengthening is possible today while Narda moves over the warm waters of the Gulf of California, however, interaction with land is likely to occur by Tuesday, and gradual weakening should begin by that time. If the center moves to the right of the NHC track forecast, landfall and weakening would occur much sooner. Narda is moving northwestward at 13 kt. The tropical storm should continue to move northwestward around the southwestern periphery of a large mid-level anticyclone centered over the southeastern United States. Although the various global model ensemble means take Narda farther westward over the Gulf of California during the next couple of days, the operational ECMWF and UKMET models show the cyclone moving inland over mainland Mexico within the next day or so. This is the solution that the NHC track forecast leans toward, and it is possible that Narda will move onshore farther south than implied by the exact forecast track. The main threat posed by Narda continues to be very heavy rainfall, due to large amounts of moisture being advected northward and northeastward over Mexico on the eastern side of the cyclone's circulation. These rains, which could total as much as 15 inches in a few locations, will result in life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 22.5N 106.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 24.0N 107.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 25.7N 109.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 02/0000Z 27.2N 110.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 02/1200Z 28.4N 111.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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