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Tropical Depression Narda Graphics

2019-09-30 13:55:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 11:55:30 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 09:31:46 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Depression Narda (EP1/EP162019)

2019-09-30 10:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 21.5, -106.4 with movement NW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2019-09-30 10:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 300834 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) X(13) X(13) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HUATABAMPO 34 X 1( 1) 7( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) CULIACAN 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ISLAS MARIAS 34 11 X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 8

2019-09-30 10:34:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300834 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 300 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA NEAR ISLAS MARIAS... ...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOON... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 106.4W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 115 MI...190 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 24 to 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later this morning. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch

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