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Tropical Storm Narda Forecast Advisory Number 11

2019-10-01 04:48:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 010248 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF ALTATA TO SAN BLAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALTATA TO GUAYMAS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.0W AT 01/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 20NE 60SE 40SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 109.0W AT 01/0300Z AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 108.4W FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.0W...OVER WATER NEAR COAST MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 50SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 28.5N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 29.4N 111.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 109.0W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 01/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm Narda Graphics

2019-10-01 01:56:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 23:56:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2019 21:31:24 GMT

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Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)

2019-10-01 01:54:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...CENTER OF NARDA REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 6:00 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 25.0, -108.4 with movement NW at 20 mph. The minimum central pressure was 998 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 10A

2019-10-01 01:54:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 600 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 302354 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 PM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...CENTER OF NARDA REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.0N 108.4W ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM W OF CULIACAN MEXICO ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 108.4 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 20 mph (32 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move along the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected this evening, but Narda should begin to weaken late tonight and Tuesday as more of the circulation intersects with land. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently measured by a private weather observing site in Paralelo Treinta y Ocho, Mexico, and a gust to 35 mph (56 km/h) was recently reported at the airport in Culiacan, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should continue to spread northward within the Tropical Storm Warning through Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Sinaloa...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua and western Durango...1 to 3 inches. Sonora...1 to 2 inches. Baja California Sur...Up to 1 inch. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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