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Tropical Storm Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2019-09-30 16:58:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 450 FOPZ11 KNHC 301458 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 5(14) X(14) X(14) BAHIA KINO 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) 11(12) 9(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) GUAYMAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X 6( 6) 18(24) 1(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) HUATABAMPO 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 22(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) LOS MOCHIS 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CULIACAN 34 7 16(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) MAZATLAN 34 38 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
Summary for Tropical Storm Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-30 16:58:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 22.5, -106.4 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Tropical Storm Narda Public Advisory Number 9
2019-09-30 16:58:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301458 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Narda Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 900 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...NARDA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.5N 106.4W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM N OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from Topolobampo to Guaymas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Guaymas * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Narda was located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 106.4 West. Narda is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Weakening should begin by Tuesday as Narda interacts with the mountains of western Mexico. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently reported at San Blas, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Chihuahua...1 to 3 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Summary for Tropical Depression Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-30 13:55:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HEAVY RAINS FROM NARDA SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 6:00 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 the center of Narda was located near 21.8, -106.5 with movement NW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 8A
2019-09-30 13:55:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 600 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 301155 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 600 AM MDT Mon Sep 30 2019 ...HEAVY RAINS FROM NARDA SPREADING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 AM MDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 106.5W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NNW OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM S OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM MDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 106.5 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is forecast, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). A pressure of 1002.8 mb (29.61 inches) was recently reported at Islas Marias. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions should spread northward over the Tropical Storm Warning area today and Tuesday. RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce the following rainfall accumulations through Tuesday: Jalisco, Nayarit, Sinaloa...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals 10 to 15 inches. Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero...Additional 1 to 4 inches, isolated storm totals 10 inches. Baja California Sur, Sonora...1 to 2 inches. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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