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Summary for Tropical Depression Narda (EP1/EP162019)
2019-09-30 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... As of 10:00 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 the center of Narda was located near 20.6, -105.2 with movement NW at 21 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression Narda Public Advisory Number 7
2019-09-30 04:31:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 300231 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Narda Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 ...NARDA EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MEXICO...BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...AND THE ISLAS MARIAS... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 105.2W ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SE OF LAS ISLAS MARIAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the Pacific coast of Mexico from San Blas to Topolobampo, and also for the Islas Marias archipelago. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Topolobampo northward to Guaymas, Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * San Blas to Topolobampo * Islas Marias A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Topolobampo to Guaymas A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours for the Islas Marias, and within 24 to 36 hours elsewhere in the warning area. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Narda was located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 105.2 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with some decrease in forward speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Narda will emerge over the Pacific early Monday and move near or across the Islas Marias archipelago. Narda is then forecast to move over the Gulf of California near or just offshore the coast of northwestern mainland Mexico through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is forecast once the center moves back over the Pacific Ocean, and Narda is expected to become a tropical storm again Monday morning. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Narda is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches along the southwestern coast of Mexico from Guerrero to Nayarit, and 1 to 4 inches over Baja California Sur through Monday night. Isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches are possible from Oaxaca to Nayarit. This rainfall will cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in mountainous terrain. SURF: Swells generated by Narda are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico. These swells are expected to spread northward and will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the west coast of mainland Mexico, along the east coast of Baja California Sur, and in the Islas Marias archipelago. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Depression Narda Graphics
2019-09-29 23:00:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 21:00:44 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2019 21:31:33 GMT
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narda
Tropical Depression Narda Forecast Discussion Number 6
2019-09-29 22:58:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 292058 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Narda Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162019 400 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2019 Narda has become less organized during the past several hours. The primary center has been over the mountains of southwestern Mexico between Lazaro Cardenas and Manzanillo, and the associated convection has been decreasing. A 17Z ASCAT-C overpass suggests two other vorticity centers are located offshore, one near a cluster of convection to the southwest of Manzanillo and the other to the southwest of Lazaro Cardenas. The scatterometer data showed 35 kt winds southeast of the primary center, and given the decrease in organization since that time it is estimated that Narda has dropped below tropical storm strength. The initial motion is a rather uncertain 315/17 kt, which is faster than in the previous advisory. Over the next couple of days, Narda will be steered generally northwestward close to the coast of mainland Mexico along the southwestern periphery of a large high pressure area. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough approaching the northern Baja California peninsula from the west should cause the system to turn north-northwestward and move over northwestern mainland Mexico. The track guidance has shifted to the right since the last advisory. However, due to the uncertainty in what will happen to the center, including the possibility it could re-form offshore, the new forecast track will be to the left of the model consensus. The new track will be faster than the previous track based on a combination of the initial motion and faster guidance. The intensity forecast is highly uncertain. The official forecast will follow the previous forecast in calling for Narda to weaken while over Mexico, and then re-intensify a little when the system emerges over water. However, there remain two alternative scenarios. The first of these is that the circulation dissipates completely as it passes over the mountains of western Mexico. The second is that the center re-forms offshore, either from the vorticity center currently southwest of Manzanillo or, as suggested by some of the global models, from a new center north of Cabo Corrientes. If such a re-formation occurs, this could lead to significant changes in both the intensity and the track forecasts. The primary threat from Narda is very heavy rainfall, which should result in life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides over portions of the southern coast of Mexico. Rainfall totals of up to 15 inches are possible. This rainfall threat is expected to continue even if the system dissipates as a tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 19.1N 103.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 30/0600Z 20.8N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/1800Z 23.0N 106.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 01/0600Z 24.7N 108.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 25.7N 109.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 28.5N 110.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 03/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Tropical Depression Narda Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2019-09-29 22:56:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 292056 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162019 2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 103.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HERMOSILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAHIA KINO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) X( 9) X( 9) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) CULIACAN 34 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAZATLAN 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN BLAS 34 X 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) P VALLARTA 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) L CARDENAS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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