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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-10-09 22:52:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 092052 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 NARDA CONTINUES TO GENERATE DEEP CONVECTION OVER A SMALL AREA NEAR AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER...AND IS THUS CLINGING TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS FOR NOW. ALSO...A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS INDICATES THAT NARDA HAS NOT WEAKENED QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED AND THE INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 30 KT. HOWEVER...SINCE THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN IN A STABLE AIR MASS AND THE SHIPS OUTPUT INDICATES INCREASING SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM... WEAKENING AND DEGENERATION INTO A REMNANT LOW ARE FORECAST AS IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CENTER IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO LOCATE BUT MY BEST GUESS IS THAT IT HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...SO THE INITIAL MOTION IS STATIONARY. NARDA...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...ARE LIKELY TO SOON BEGIN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT GIVEN BY THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 16.9N 128.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 15.1N 132.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression NARDA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2013-10-09 22:52:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 092052 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 24 27 28 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 56 48 44 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 19 24 27 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X 1 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X 1 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Depression NARDA (EP4/EP142013)
2013-10-09 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...NARDA HANGING ON FOR NOW AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... As of 2:00 PM PDT Wed Oct 9 the center of NARDA was located near 16.9, -128.4 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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narda
Tropical Depression NARDA Public Advisory Number 13
2013-10-09 22:51:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 092051 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT WED OCT 09 2013 ...NARDA HANGING ON FOR NOW AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.9N 128.4W ABOUT 1270 MI...2045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS NEARLY STATIONARY...AND A SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND NARDA IS EXPECTED EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Depression NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 13
2013-10-09 22:51:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 092051 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 128.4W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 128.4W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 128.4W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 16.5N 129.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 16.1N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.7N 130.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.1N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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