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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-09 04:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 PM AST Sat Sep 8 the center of Isaac was located near 14.4, -37.5 with movement W at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 6
2018-09-09 04:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 851 WTNT34 KNHC 090241 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 ...ISAAC STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.4N 37.5W ABOUT 1580 MI...2540 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 37.5 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Isaac is expected to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 6
2018-09-09 04:41:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 408 WTNT24 KNHC 090241 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 37.5W AT 09/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 30SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 37.5W AT 09/0300Z AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 37.1W FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.4N 38.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 43.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 14.5N 46.1W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 14.5N 51.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 14.6N 57.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 15.0N 62.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 37.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-08 22:53:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 20:53:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 08 Sep 2018 20:53:58 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 5
2018-09-08 22:48:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 510 WTNT44 KNHC 082048 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 The structure of the cyclone, while still a shear pattern, is improving, with the low-level center now near the convective overcast and improved outflow in the eastern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have increased to the 30-45 kt range, with the CIMSS satellite consensus technique now suggesting winds near 35 kt. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 35 kt and the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Isaac. Isaac is now moving slowly westward, with the initial motion 275/6. The subtropical ridge to the north of Isaac is forecast to steer the system westward with an increasing forward speed for at least the next 2-3 days. After that time, there is some uncertainty in the track forecast due to the formation of a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic, with some of the track guidance showing a decrease in forward speed and a more northerly motion near the end of the forecast period. The GFS and ECMWF models show a continued westerly motion through that time, and the official forecast follows that scenario, although with a slower forward speed than in the previous forecast. The new forecast is again similar to the earlier forecast and lies near the various consensus models. Conditions appear favorable for gradual strengthening during the next 72 h as Isaac moves westward across the warm waters of the tropical Atlantic. In best agreement with the SHIPS model for the next three days, the new intensity forecast is raised from the previous forecast during this time. From 72-120 h, the system is expected to encounter westerly wind shear, which is expected to cause some weakening. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 14.5N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 14.6N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 14.7N 39.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 14.7N 42.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 14.5N 50.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 12/1800Z 14.5N 55.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 13/1800Z 15.0N 61.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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