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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 9
2018-09-09 22:31:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 176 WTNT24 KNHC 092031 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.3W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 40.3W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 39.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.8N 45.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.9N 48.0W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 50.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 15.0N 56.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 63.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 15.5N 69.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 40.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-09 16:34:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 14:34:32 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 14:34:32 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-09 16:33:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 266 WTNT44 KNHC 091433 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 WindSat microwave data from several hours ago show that Isaac has developed a well-defined low-level ring in the 37-GHz channel, and the center is embedded in the middle of a small central dense overcast. TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates have increased to T3.5 given Isaac's improved structure, so the initial intensity is raised to 55 kt. Isaac's future intensity is the most challenging part of the forecast. Since sea surface temperatures will be warm (between 27-28 degrees Celsius) and vertical shear will be almost non-existent (less than 10 kt) for the next 36-48 hours, the tiny storm will be prone to a possibly significant increase in intensity during the next couple of days. For that period, the NHC intensity forecast is above the guidance, and above the previous forecast, due to relatively high numbers from the various rapid intensification indices. However, in 2-3 days, the global models are showing northwesterly shear steadily increasing and potentially reaching a maximum of around 30 kt by Thursday. The big question is the timing of this shear and how much it will affect Isaac's intensity before the cyclone reaches the Lesser Antilles. The HWRF, which brings Isaac to major hurricane intensity despite the forecast shear, appears to be an outlier, and is therefore pulling up the ICON intensity consensus and HCCA. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast is below ICON on days 4 and 5. This new forecast shows a more peaked maximum intensity, with Isaac possibly increasing and then decreasing in strength at faster rates than shown here. While the microwave data indicate that Isaac's center is slightly south of previous estimates, the current motion estimate is 270/8 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge is expected to move westward in tandem with Isaac for much of the forecast period, causing the cyclone to accelerate toward the west, reaching a forward speed of around 15 kt by 36 hours, and then holding that speed through day 5. With the exception of the UKMET and HWRF models, the guidance envelope is tightly packed from north to south, and the speed differences noted over the past few days have decreased. The updated NHC track forecast is just a little south of the previous one to account for the adjusted initial position, and lies slightly south of the multi-model consensus in the direction of HCCA and the Florida State Superensemble. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 14.3N 39.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 14.4N 40.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 14.4N 43.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 14.4N 46.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 14.3N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 14.2N 54.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 14.5N 60.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8
2018-09-09 16:32:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 277 FONT14 KNHC 091432 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 39.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 13(25) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 12(36) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 23(38) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 10(14) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 14(45) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 35(35) 12(47) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 7(21) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 31(31) 11(42) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 6(18) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 9(33) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 31(33) 4(37) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 8(19) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 4(15) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) JUANGRIEGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-09 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Isaac was located near 14.3, -39.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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