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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2018-09-09 10:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 225 FONT14 KNHC 090840 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 20(24) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 25(33) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 20(32) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 23(38) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 27(48) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 14(20) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 39(45) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 32(57) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 22(29) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 12(15) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 29(56) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 18(28) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) 23(44) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 14(21) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 18(31) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 11(36) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 6(16) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 12(17) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Advisory Number 7
2018-09-09 10:39:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 903 WTNT24 KNHC 090839 TCMAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0900 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.1W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 30SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 38.1W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 37.7W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 14.6N 39.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 14.7N 41.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 14.7N 47.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 14.7N 53.1W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 14.9N 58.9W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 15.3N 64.5W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 38.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-09 04:50:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 02:50:45 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 02:50:45 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 6
2018-09-09 04:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 251 WTNT44 KNHC 090242 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 PM AST Sat Sep 08 2018 Isaac is strengthening this evening. Satellite images indicate that the deep convection has been increasing in intensity and coverage with better defined banding features. The center is not located in the center of the convection, however, due to some easterly shear. An ASCAT pass around 00Z showed maximum winds in the 40-45 kt range. These data are also in line with the latest Dvorak classifications of 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. Based on these estimates, the initial intensity is raised to 45 kt. Isaac will likely continue to strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and moves into an environment of decreasing wind shear. Beyond a few days, the SHIPS model shows a notable increase in shear, in part due to the outflow from Florence, which should end the strengthening trend and cause some weakening. With the exception of the HMON and COAMPS-TC models, the remainder of the intensity guidance is higher this cycle. The NHC intensity forecast is raised from the previous one, but it is a little lower than the HCCA and IVCN guidance. The storm is moving due westward at 7 kt. The track forecast seems fairly straightforward. A strengthening subtropical ridge to the north of the system should cause Isaac to move westward at an increasing forward speed during the next several days. This scenario is supported by the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models, and the NHC track forecast is near a blend of those aids. Based on the current forecast, Isaac will be near the Lesser Antilles in 4 to 5 days and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 14.4N 37.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 14.4N 38.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 10/0000Z 14.5N 40.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1200Z 14.5N 43.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/0000Z 14.5N 46.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 12/0000Z 14.5N 51.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/0000Z 14.6N 57.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0000Z 15.0N 62.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2018-09-09 04:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 902 FONT14 KNHC 090241 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 0300 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 21(21) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 32(34) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 34(38) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 40(46) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 37(38) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 44(51) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 43(51) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 31(38) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 16(18) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 23(27) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 18(32) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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