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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 8
2018-09-09 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 995 WTNT34 KNHC 091432 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...ISAAC STRENGTHENING OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.3N 39.1W ABOUT 1470 MI...2370 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.3 North, longitude 39.1 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h) and is expected to accelerate during the next 36 hours. A westward motion is forecast to continue through the end of the week, with Isaac expected to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Isaac is expected to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Weakening is anticipated to begin by the middle of the week. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-09 10:41:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 08:41:55 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 08:41:55 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 7
2018-09-09 10:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 335 WTNT44 KNHC 090840 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 The cloud pattern of Isaac has changed significantly during the past several hours. The storm no longer has a sheared appearance, and instead microwave images reveal a well-defined curved band that wraps a little more than halfway around the center. Despite the change in the storm's structure, the Dvorak classifications are unchanged at 3.0/45 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. Now that the shear has lessened, Isaac should steadily strengthen during the next few days as the storm remains over warm waters and in a low wind shear environment. Beyond a few days, however, the SHIPS model shows a notable increase in shear, in part due to the outflow from Florence, which should end the strengthening trend and induce some weakening. There was no significant change in the intensity guidance this cycle, so the official forecast is largely an update of the previous one. This prediction lies fairly close to the IVCN and HCCA models. Isaac remains on the forecast track and the initial motion is the same as before, 270/7. A strengthening subtropical ridge to the north of the system should cause Isaac to move westward at an increasing forward speed during the next several days. Although there is some spread in the models, the usually more reliable GFS and ECMWF models have been consistent in showing a due westward motion through the forecast period. The NHC track forecast leans toward those models, and it is fairly similar to the previous prediction. Based on the current forecast, Isaac will be near the Lesser Antilles in 4 to 5 days and interests there should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0900Z 14.5N 38.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 09/1800Z 14.6N 39.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 10/0600Z 14.7N 41.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 10/1800Z 14.7N 44.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 11/0600Z 14.7N 47.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 12/0600Z 14.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/0600Z 14.9N 58.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/0600Z 15.3N 64.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-09 10:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... As of 5:00 AM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Isaac was located near 14.5, -38.1 with movement W at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 7
2018-09-09 10:40:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 218 WTNT34 KNHC 090840 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 AM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...ISAAC EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 38.1W ABOUT 1540 MI...2475 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 38.1 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and Isaac is expected to become a hurricane by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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