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Tropical Storm Isaac Graphics
2018-09-09 22:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 20:34:14 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 09 Sep 2018 21:34:33 GMT
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Tropical Storm Isaac Forecast Discussion Number 9
2018-09-09 22:32:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 355 WTNT44 KNHC 092032 TCDAT4 Tropical Storm Isaac Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 Isaac is a tiny tropical cyclone, but even still, recent SSMIS data showed that it has developed a mid-level microwave eye feature. At the time of the pass (1800 UTC), the convection was a little thin on the southern side, but geostationary satellite images suggest that it has filled in since that time. Dvorak intensity estimates are T4.0 from TAFB and T3.5 from SAB, so the maximum winds are estimated to be 60 kt. The intensity forecast philosophy has not changed since this morning. Isaac is strengthening in an environment of low shear and over warm sea surface temperatures, and for the next 36-48 hours, the NHC intensity forecast is above the bulk of the intensity models. The main reason for this is that Isaac's tiny size could allow the intensity to increase quickly within the favorable environment. However, the cyclone's tiny size will likely also be to its detriment after 48 hours when northwesterly vertical shear is expected to develop and increase to 20-30 kt. The shear will probably easily decouple the small system, causing the intensity to decrease much faster than suggested by most of the intensity models. For that reason, the official NHC intensity forecast is below the intensity consensus on days 3 through 5. It should be noted that both the GFS and ECMWF models show a weakening cyclone moving into the eastern Caribbean Sea by days 4 and 5, with the GFS even making the system an open wave by the end of the forecast period. These global model solutions lend credence to the belief that it may be difficult for Isaac to maintain hurricane status while it approaches the Lesser Antilles. Isaac is accelerating toward the west with an initial motion of 275/10 kt. Ridging to the north is expected to keep the cyclone on a westward trajectory for the entire forecast period, with acceleration continuing for the next 36 hours. The UKMET remains the biggest outlier, showing Isaac turning northwestward and northward into the central Atlantic after 48 hours. That still appears to be unlikely at this time, and the NHC track forecast is still close to the center of the guidance envelope. Only a slight northward shift was made to the new forecast based on the latest model solutions. Key Messages: 1. Isaac is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Monday while it moves westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean. 2. While Isaac is forecast to begin weakening by Tuesday while it approaches the Lesser Antilles, it is still expected to be at or near hurricane intensity when it reaches the islands, and the uncertainty in the intensity forecast is higher than usual. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should continue to monitor Isaac during the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 14.5N 40.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 14.6N 42.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 14.8N 45.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 14.9N 48.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 14.9N 50.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 15.0N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 15.5N 63.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 15.5N 69.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Isaac Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2018-09-09 22:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 970 FONT14 KNHC 092032 PWSAT4 TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092018 2100 UTC SUN SEP 09 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 40.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PT GALLINAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CURACAO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 9(19) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 9(22) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 5(21) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 6(27) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 21(23) 3(26) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 24(26) 5(31) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 29(32) 5(37) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 2(13) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10(32) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 30(34) 4(38) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 28(33) 3(36) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 2(15) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 24(28) 2(30) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) 1(26) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 1(13) GRENADA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GRENADA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 1(10) TRINIDADTOBAGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) TRINIDADTOBAGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) JUANGRIEGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Summary for Tropical Storm Isaac (AT4/AL092018)
2018-09-09 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...ISAAC ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 9 the center of Isaac was located near 14.5, -40.3 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm Isaac Public Advisory Number 9
2018-09-09 22:31:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 881 WTNT34 KNHC 092031 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018 500 PM AST Sun Sep 09 2018 ...ISAAC ALMOST A HURRICANE... ...MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE WEST OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.5N 40.3W ABOUT 1390 MI...2240 KM E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Isaac. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Isaac was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 40.3 West. Isaac is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and is expected to accelerate during the next 36 hours. A westward motion is forecast to continue through the end of the week, with Isaac expected to move across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern Caribbean Sea Wednesday night or Thursday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Isaac is expected to become a hurricane tonight. Weakening is anticipated to begin by the middle of the week while Isaac approaches the Lesser Antilles. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Berg
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