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Tropical Storm Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2019-10-26 04:39:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 260239 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 0300 UTC SAT OCT 26 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X 47(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) PONTA DELGADA 50 X 7( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Tropical Storm Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 1
2019-10-25 22:36:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 252036 TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Pablo Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 High-resolution visible satellite imagery gave us a surprise today. A tropical cyclone has formed within a larger extratropical cyclone in the northeastern Atlantic. This is not unique and has occurred several times in the past, primarily during the latter part of the hurricane season. Pablo is a very small-scale tropical cyclone, but ASCAT data clearly show a well-defined but small circulation with 40-kt winds embedded within the larger low. This is the intensity assigned to the cyclone for this advisory. The cloud pattern consists of an eye-type feature surrounded by a ring of deep convection. Given the small size of the cyclone, and the baroclinic environment, the intensity forecast is highly uncertain. At this time, the NHC forecast calls for a small increase in the winds and for the cyclone to become extratropical in about 36 hours. However, this transition could occur sooner than anticipated. Pablo is currently moving toward the east-southeast at about 9 kt while embedded within the circulation of the larger extratropical low. Pablo should then turn toward the northeast with some increase in forward speed, as indicated by the multi-model consensus aids. In fact, all the models are in very good agreement, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope. Given that Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 35.8N 32.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 35.3N 30.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 36.3N 26.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 40.0N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 43.0N 21.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 28/1800Z 46.5N 20.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Pablo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2019-10-25 22:35:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 000 FONT13 KNHC 252035 PWSAT3 TROPICAL STORM PABLO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182019 2100 UTC FRI OCT 25 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM PABLO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 32.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT PONTA DELGADA 34 X 2( 2) 46(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) PONTA DELGADA 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
Summary for Tropical Storm Pablo (AT3/AL182019)
2019-10-25 22:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 25 the center of Pablo was located near 35.8, -32.2 with movement ESE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Pablo Public Advisory Number 1
2019-10-25 22:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 000 WTNT33 KNHC 252035 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Pablo Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Fri Oct 25 2019 ...SMALL TROPICAL STORM FORMS IN THE NORTHEAST ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...35.8N 32.2W ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 115 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal tropical cyclone watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pablo was located near latitude 35.8 North, longitude 32.2 West. Pablo is moving toward the east-southeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northeast and an increase in forward speed. On this track, the small core of Pablo will pass near or over the Azores this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. No significant change in strength is anticipated, and Pablo is expected to become an extratropical cyclone in a couple of days to the northeast of the Azores. Pablo is a very small cyclone and its tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Since Pablo is embedded within a large extratropical low, which itself is forecast to bring strong winds to the Azores, the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) has included the effects of this small cyclone in their products. Those products already account for the strong winds and high waves. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Avila
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