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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-10-08 10:41:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080840 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 AM PDT TUE OCT 08 2013 A SERIES OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF NARDA IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE STILL 55 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALTHOUGH THE FINAL T-NUMBER FROM SAB HAS FALLEN TO 35 KT. IN ADDITION...THE LATEST OBJECTIVE ADT AND SATCON ESTIMATES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN ARE AROUND 45 KT. BASED ON THESE NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 50 KT...BUT THIS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST WAS REQUIRED IN THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW FOR ANOTHER 36 HOURS...NARDA APPEARS TO BE STRUGGLING A BIT DUE TO A MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. AS THE STORM CONTINUES WESTWARD...IT WILL BE RUNNING INTO AN EVEN DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS...AND THE PROSPECTS FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION HAVE DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. IN ADDITION...THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A MID-LEVEL BLOCKING RIDGE WILL DEVELOP TO THE WEST OF NARDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND CAUSE THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS TO DECOUPLE. AS A RESULT...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE NO LONGER SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST MAINTAINS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR REMAINS LOW...BUT THEN SHOWS RELATIVELY FAST WEAKENING TO REMNANT LOW STATUS BY DAY 4. NARDA IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...AND ITS CURRENT MOTION IS 290/11 KT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY ALONG THE U.S. WEST COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING NARDA IN A COL REGION TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH AND BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES TO ITS EAST AND WEST. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW WILL CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO SLOW DOWN AND LIKELY DRIFT WESTWARD BY 48 AND 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...NARDA WILL BE WEAKENING...AND THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD ACCELERATE WESTWARD WITHIN THE TRADES BY DAYS 4 AND 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0900Z 15.3N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 08/1800Z 15.7N 126.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 128.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 09/1800Z 16.3N 129.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 10/0600Z 16.3N 129.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 11/0600Z 16.3N 130.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 12/0600Z 16.0N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/0600Z 15.5N 135.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-10-08 04:57:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 080257 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 COMPARED TO 12 HOUR AGO...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF NARDA LOOKS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED. HOWEVER...A SMALL BURST OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE...AND A T3.5/55 KT SATELLITE CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB SUPPORTS HOLDING THE INTENSITY STEADY AT 55 KT. DESPITE THE DEGRADED CONVECTIVE PATTERN...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. HOWEVER...UW-CIMSS ANALYSES INDICATE THAT SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR OF 10-15 KT IS UNDERCUTTING THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW REGIME. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 285/10 KT. NARDA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACCOMPANIED BY A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE IT NEARS A WEAKNESS IN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS LOCATED ALONG 130W. AFTER THAT...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO ERODE THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST...ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD BACK WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF NARDA BY DAYS 4 AND 5...WHICH FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. NARDA HAS A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-27C SSTS IN 12-18 HOURS...THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO LESS THAN 5 KT BY 24 HOURS. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR NARDA TO MAKE ONE MORE INTENSIFICATION EFFORT TO BECOME A HURRICANE IF IT CAN MIX OUT THE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DESK THAT THE CYCLONE HAS INGESTED TODAY. BY 36-48 HOURS...NARDA WILL BE MOVING INTO A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. BY 72 HOURS AND BEYOND...STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD GENERATE EVEN GREATER WEAKENING...AND NARDA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY FORECAST...AND IS SIMILAR TO BUT SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM MODELS THROUGH 24 HOURS...AND THEN CLOSELY FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE THERAFTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.6N 125.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.0N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.5N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 15.8N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 15.9N 130.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 16.0N 131.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 15.9N 134.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-10-07 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 072043 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 200 PM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 AFTER INCREASING IN ORGANIZATION RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT...NARDA APPEARS TO HAVE ENTERED A PERIOD OF ARRESTED DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A 1625 UTC SSMI/S PASS SHOWS THAT THE INNER CORE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE EARLIER THIS MORNING...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED CONSIDERABLY WITH THE APPROACH OF THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM. SINCE THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS NOT BEEN DEGRADED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HELD AT 55 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH TAFB AND SAB SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE FIXES DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS HAVE BEEN IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT...AND MAKE THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE A FAIRLY CONFIDENT 285/13. NARDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM MEXICO. AFTER THAT...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF NOW IN AGREEMENT THAT AN AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST WILL HAVE LESS EFFECT ON NARDA WHILE IT WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE LEFT AFTER 36 HOURS AND IS MUCH FASTER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TO BETTER MATCH THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHILE IT PASSES UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. EXCEPT FOR THE PROXIMITY OF A SOMEWHAT DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS LURKING TO THE NORTHWEST...THESE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW NARDA TO INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN A DAY OR SO. AFTER A COUPLE OF DAYS...INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE U.S. WEST COAST TROUGH AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING... WITH THE SHEAR BECOMING QUITE STRONG AND LIKELY CAUSING NARDA TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5...IF NOT SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN LOWERED A BIT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS/LGEM...BUT HIGHER THAN THE REGIONAL DYNAMICAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 14.4N 123.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0600Z 14.8N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1800Z 15.4N 127.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 09/0600Z 15.8N 128.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 09/1800Z 16.0N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/1800Z 16.0N 130.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 11/1800Z 16.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 12/1800Z 16.0N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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PRESS RELEASE: CoreNet NYC Presents Landmark Discussion with Rudolf W. Giuliani, 107th Mayor of New York City Days After the Election 11.7.13
2013-10-07 18:03:00| National Real Estate Investor
Molly Ferrer CoreNet Global New York City Chapter (CoreNet NYC) is pleased to announce landmark dialogue with Mayor Rudy Giuliani entitled, New York City in Transition: Rudy Giuliani, Provides Insights on Opportunities and Challenges Facing a New Mayor And Lessons Learned from the Past. The event will take place on Thursday, November 7, 2013 at 5:30 PM at the Grand Hyatt New York in New York City. read more
Tropical Storm NARDA Forecast Discussion Number 4
2013-10-07 16:46:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 071445 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 800 AM PDT MON OCT 07 2013 NARDA HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING...WITH A LONG CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSSIBLE PARTIAL EYEWALL BUT WITH SOME SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AT 1200 UTC ARE 45 AND 55 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME...THE HIGHER OF THE TWO DVORAK ESTIMATES IS SELECTED FOR THIS ADVISORY. RECENT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER WAS FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY INDICATED...AND A LONG-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/13. NARDA SHOULD BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE WESTERN SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. AS AN AMPLIFIED MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS NEAR THE U.S. WEST COAST IN A FEW DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN NORTHWESTWARD. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER SYSTEM SUCCUMBING TO SHEAR AND TURNING WESTWARD SOONER THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE...WHEREAS THE GFS PREDICTS A DEEPER SYSTEM GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND TURNING WESTWARD. THE NHC OFFICIAL TRACK IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL NORTHWARD RELOCATION AND TO BE CLOSER TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH ASSUMES A DEEPER CYCLONE THAN FORECAST BY THE ECMWF. NARDA SHOULD BE MOVING OVER WARM BUT GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND PASSING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW NARDA TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE SOON. IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE AND SHOULD BECOME EVEN STRONGER BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WHILE NARDA TRAVERSES COOLER WATERS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO RAPID WEAKENING BY DAY 4...AND NARDA IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE GUIDANCE IN THE SHORT TERM. WHILE THE INTENSITY PREDICTION IS UNCHANGED AT LONG RANGE...IT IS VERY SENSITIVE TO THE TRACK FORECAST...WITH A DEEPER/STRONGER CYCLONE LIKELY MOVING FARTHER NORTH AND EXPERIENCING THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR SOONER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 14.0N 122.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 14.4N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 15.1N 126.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 15.6N 127.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 16.5N 129.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 16.7N 130.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 16.7N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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