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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-09-12 23:08:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 122108 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 SATELLITE DATA...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND ENOUGH ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IT APPEARS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AFTER THAT TIME. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN LIGHT STEERING CURRENTS AND LITTLE MOTION IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. AFTER THAT TIME...A SMALL MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL PROVIDE SOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY STEERING TO THE CYCLONE. NEVERTHELESS...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE HWRF. GIVEN THE SLOW MOTION AND THE PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF MEXICO...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED BY THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE...IN COMBINATION WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 19.7N 93.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 19.7N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 19.5N 95.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 19.3N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 19.3N 95.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 20.7N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 22.0N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN
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Hurricane HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-09-12 22:34:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 122034 TCDAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT ON SATELLITE IMAGES...AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE HURRICANE. DVORAK-BASED CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT YET DECREASED...SO THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 75 KT. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LATER ON...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TRAVERSE WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE AND THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO RELAX A LITTLE. THUS...THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST HINTS AT SOME RE-STRENGTHENING BY LATE IN PERIOD. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE EVEN STRONGER THAN INDICATED HERE AT DAYS 4-5. THE NORTHWARD MOTION CONTINUES...AT 350/12 KT. A LARGE MID- TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST- NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK TO THE RIGHT WITHIN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE HIGH AND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND ATLANTIC CANADA. THE NEW TRACK GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE ECMWF...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...ARE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONES. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST FOR THIS ADVISORY IS SIMILAR TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AND ESSENTIALLY SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE GFS AND THE ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 23.1N 29.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 24.1N 30.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 25.2N 32.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 34.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 26.8N 36.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 28.8N 40.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 30.5N 43.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 33.0N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-09-12 22:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122031 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 GABRIELLE CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS STILL PRODUCING INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. EARLIER SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THERE ARE A FEW 35-KNOT WIND VECTORS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH THE CIRCULATION...AND THIS VALUE IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...WEAKENING IS FORECAST...AND GABRIELLE WILL LIKELY BE ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 34.4N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 36.3N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 40.5N 66.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0600Z...ABSORBED BY A FRONT $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Hurricane HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 16
2013-09-12 16:40:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 121439 TCDAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME EVIDENCE OF SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...HUMBERTO REMAINS FAIRLY WELL ORGANIZED WITH CONTINUED HINTS OF A BANDING-TYPE EYE. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER IN THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO TRAVERSE THE WARMER WATERS WEST OF 40W LONGITUDE...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG...SO RESTRENGTHENING IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS NEAR THE LOW END OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND LIES BETWEEN THE LATEST DSHIPS AND LGEM PREDICTIONS. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER PACE...OR 360/13. A LARGE MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NORTH OF THE AZORES SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATE IN THE PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT A WEAKENING OF THE HIGH WHILE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD FROM ATLANTIC CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. BY THIS TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED DUE TO A WEAKENING STEERING CURRENT. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS ONCE AGAIN SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. A RECENT ASCAT OVER PASS REVEALED A SIGNIFICANTLY LARGER HURRICANE THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATED...AND THE WIND RADII HAVE BEEN EXPANDED ACCORDINGLY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 21.8N 29.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 23.3N 29.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 24.6N 31.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 25.4N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 26.0N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 27.5N 39.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 29.0N 43.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 31.0N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-09-12 16:32:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 121432 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 AM AST THU SEP 12 2013 DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE. GIVEN THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CENTER AND THE CONVECTION...AND THE PRESENCE OF A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE EAST...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE WINDS ARE UP TO 35 KNOTS. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AND CONVECTION COULD EASILY BE REMOVED AGAIN. ON THAT BASIS...GABRIELLE COULD EXPERIENCE SMALL FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO BEFORE IT BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD THEN BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS IT MOVES NEAR ATLANTIC CANADA. GABRIELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN WILL FORCE GABRIELLE TO RECURVE AND TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE NHC FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE LATEST GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 33.9N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 35.0N 67.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 38.0N 67.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 43.0N 64.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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