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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-09-15 16:51:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 151450 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION REMAINS IMPRESSIVE. A MOSTLY CIRCULAR DENSE OVERCAST SURROUNDS THE CENTER...WITH A LONG CURVED BAND EXTENDING WELL TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER... AN EARLIER SSM/I PASS SHOWED A LESS ORGANIZED INNER CORE STRUCTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS... AND A LITTLE SEPARATION BETWEEN THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS. THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AT 1200 UTC WAS 4.0...WITH THE LATEST ADT VALUE OF 3.7. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 60 KT...GIVEN THE LACK OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL FEATURES AND RECENT CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOP WARMING IN THE INNER CORE. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE MOTION OF MANUEL IS A BIT TO THE LEFT OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...WITH A LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATED TO BE 320/08...WHICH HAS DELAYED LANDFALL. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO SOMETIME LATER TODAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE NORTHWESTERLY INITIAL MOTION BUT REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. WITH THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ONSHORE BY THIS AFTERNOON...RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD FOLLOW WHEN THE CIRCULATION IS DISRUPTED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ANOTHER DAY OR SO. ANY DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE LEFT COULD DELAY THE TIME OF LANDFALL FURTHER AND COULD LEAD TO TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. AS A CONSEQUENCE...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 18.5N 103.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1200Z 20.3N 105.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 21.2N 106.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-09-15 16:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 151450 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT JUST COMPLETED SEVERAL HOURS OF INVESTIGATION OF INGRID...AND FOUND LITTLE TO INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL A HURRICANE. THE HIGHEST RAIN-CORRECTED SFMR OBSERVATION WAS 58 KT. A DROPSONDE NORTH OF THE CENTER SPLASHED WITH 59 KT BUT THE LAYER-AVERAGED SURFACE-ADJUSTED WINDS WERE 53-54 KT. THE PRESSURE IS UP TO 990 MB...AND MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT THE CENTER IS NEARLY EXPOSED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 65 KT. THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT HAS DISRUPTED THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LESSEN BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A MODEST AMOUNT OF RESTRENGTHENING...BUT THIS FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER END OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE PAST FEW FIXES POINT-TO-POINT SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION...BUT A LONGER-TERM ESTIMATE IS 290/5. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY...WHICH CALLS FOR A WESTWARD TURN TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO LIE IN BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE TIMING OF LANDFALL IS A LITTLE HARD TO NAIL DOWN GIVEN THE SHEAR...AS A WEAKER SYSTEM WILL MOVE MORE QUICKLY TOWARD THE COAST WHILE A STRONGER ONE WILL LIKELY TAKE A MORE LEISURLY PATH. THE PRIMARY THREAT...APART FROM THE WIND HAZARD IN THE IMMEDIATE LANDFALL AREA...IS GOING TO BE FROM RAINFALL AND THE RESULTANT FLOODING. WITH BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL BRINGING COPIOUS RAINS TO CENTRAL MEXICO...LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 22.5N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 22.8N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 22.8N 98.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 12

2013-09-15 10:54:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150853 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD PATTERN OF INGRID IS SOMEWHAT RAGGED-LOOKING... THE CYCLONE IS PRODUCING VERY STRONG DEEP CONVECTION WITH NUMEROUS CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS CYCLE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 75 KT. A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING INGRID AND WILL SOON PROVIDE MORE PRECISE INFORMATION ABOUT THE INTENSITY...BUT PRELIMINARY OBSERVATIONS FROM THAT AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT INCREASE IN THE WINDS. INGRID WAS ABLE TO STRENGTHEN DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE TO STRONG WESTERLY SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR IN A DAY OR SO...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY PRIOR TO LANDFALL. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE WITH INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...A VERY RECENT CENTER FIX FROM THE NOAA PLANE INDICATES THAT INGRID HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...WITH A MOTION ESTIMATE OF 315/6. FOLLOWING THE FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE...THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE WEST AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST. NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES IN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS AND IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL FORECAST. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 22.4N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 22.9N 96.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 23.1N 97.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 23.1N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 22.4N 100.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 8

2013-09-15 10:41:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150841 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY. IN FACT...THE MOST RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INNER CORE MAY NOT BE QUITE AS WELL ORGANIZED AS IT WAS LAST EVENING. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND T3.5/55 KT FROM SAB...WHICH SUPPORTS KEEPING THE INTENSITY AT 60 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AFTER WOBBLING A BIT TO THE EAST LAST EVENING...MANUEL HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...OR 335/7 KT...TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST SOON...AND THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AFTER LANDFALL... KEEPING THE CENTER OF MANUEL OVER LAND UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A DAY OR TWO. SINCE THE CENTER OF MANUEL IS LIKELY TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO BECOME A HURRICANE IS QUICKLY DWINDLING. NONETHELESS...THE HURRICANE WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL IT IS CERTAIN THAT THE CENTER HAS REACHED LAND. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND AND INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND MAXIMUM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE BY 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS DISSIPATION BY 48 HOURS...BUT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD CONTINUE NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. REGENERATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE MONITORED FOR THAT POSSIBILITY. ASCAT DATA FROM A FEW HOURS AGO INDICATED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM WIND FIELD OF MANUEL HAS DETACHED FROM THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CYCLONE. THEREFORE...THE TROPICAL STORM AND 12-FT SEAS RADII HAVE BEEN DECREASED TO ISOLATE THE STORM-SCALE CIRCULATION AND WAVE FIELD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.9N 102.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0600Z 19.9N 104.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1800Z 20.6N 105.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/PASCH

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-09-15 04:45:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 150244 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING INGRID THIS EVENING INDICATE THAT THE HURRICANE HAS STRENGTHENED. THE NOAA P-3 REPORTED SEVERAL SFMR WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE AFTER CORRECTING FOR THE INFLUENCE OF RAIN...AND DATA FROM TWO DROPSONDES NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER FROM THE NOAA AIRCRAFT ALSO SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS IN THE 70-75 KT RANGE. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB IS BASED ON A DROPSONDE FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT...AND THAT VALUE HAS RISEN A BIT SINCE 00Z. OVERALL THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH AN EXPANDING CDO FEATURE. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED THE FORMATION OF A PARTIAL EYEWALL...WHICH WAS ALSO NOTED BY PERSONNEL ON THE NOAA AIRCRAFT. INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED DESPITE PERSISTENT MODERATE SHEAR...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING BEFORE LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLER HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS CLOSEST TO THE LGEM MODEL. QUICK WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER LANDFALL...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER 72 HOURS. AIRCRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT INGRID IS MOVING MORE TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHWEST...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 335/07. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. OVERALL THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THIS CYCLE...WITH THE LATEST GFS TRENDING TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A FASTER MOTION. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED NORTHWARD IN THIS PACKAGE...BUT REMAINS SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS AND ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE UNTIL LANDFALL GIVEN THE MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION. THIS ADJUSTMENT PUTS THE NHC FORECAST ABOUT A HALF A DEGREE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BY THE TIME OF LANDFALL...AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TRACK MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER LANDFALL...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW A SOUTHWARD DIP IN THE TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATION. GIVEN THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM LA PESCA TO BAHIA ALGODONES...AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTH TO RIO SAN FERNANDO. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 22.0N 95.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 22.4N 95.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 23.0N 96.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 23.0N 97.8W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 22.7N 98.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 22.0N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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