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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-09-18 16:42:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 181442 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. THE RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT A BAND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOSELY WRAPS AROUND MUCH OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL HAS BECOME A TROPICAL STORM AGAIN. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATERS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD PERMIT SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING. AFTER 72 HOURS...LAND INTERACTION WILL LIKELY CAUSE MANUEL TO WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THE RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...OR A BIT TO THE RIGHT OF THE EARLIER FORECASTS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL SPREAD BECOMES QUITE LARGE...WITH THE HWRF LYING ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE...SHOWING LANDFALL ALONG THE WEST-CENTRAL COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO. MEANWHILE...THE ECMWF MODEL SHOWS MANUEL BECOMING STATIONARY ON THURSDAY...BEFORE TURNING WEST AND MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE DIFFERENCES APPEAR AT LEAST PARTIALLY RELATED TO THE PREDICTED DEPTH OF MANUEL...SINCE A DEEPER SYSTEM WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE NORTHWARD TOWARD MAINLAND MEXICO. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED EASTWARD DURING THE FIRST 24 TO 48 HOURS TO BE CLOSER TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. FOR NOW...THE NHC FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR A BEND TO THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS LATER IN THE PERIOD...BUT THIS IS A LOW CONFIDENCE FOREAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 23.4N 107.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 23.8N 108.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 24.3N 108.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 24.5N 108.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 24.5N 109.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 24.3N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 24.0N 110.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 33

2013-09-18 16:37:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 181436 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST WED SEP 18 2013 HUMBERRTO APPEARS DISORGANIZED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. THE MOST CONCENTRATED CONVECTION IS IN BANDS LOCATED ABOUT 150 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...WITH ONLY WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE CELLS NEAR THE CENTER. IN ADDITION...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING ELONGATED FROM NORTH-NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. WATER VAPOR AND AIRMASS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS STILL CLOSE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH MAY BE HINDERING THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. WHILE DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...AMSU-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES DURING THE NIGHT SUGGEST THE CYCLONE IS STILL A TROPICAL STORM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS HELD...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY..AT 35 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY HAS MADE IT EASIER TO FIND THE CENTER...WHICH IS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/4. HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE CYCLONE ENTERS THE WESTERLIES. THE SPREAD OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY NARROW...AND THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THERE IS STILL TIME FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN SOME AS IT MOVES INTO A MORE FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW. HOWEVER...BY 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS IT MERGES WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST... CALLING FOR HUMBERTO TO BE A STORM-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW BY 72 HOURS...AND THEN BE ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER LOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO...FAVORED BY THE GFS...ECMWF... AND CANADIAN MODELS...IS THAT LITTLE STRENGTHENING OCCURS AND THAT HUMBERTO DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH AS IT ENOUCNTERS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 31.3N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 32.3N 43.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 33.8N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 36.1N 42.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 38.7N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 21/1200Z 51.0N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/1200Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-09-18 10:39:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180838 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT WED SEP 18 2013 MANUEL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT RAGGED AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION. THE CONVECTION DOES NOT SHOW A LOT OF CURVATURE...AND DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND WARM SSTS SHOULD SUPPORT GRADUAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. BY 72 HOURS THE CYCLONE WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...AND INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD RESULT IN WEAKENING AROUND THAT TIME. MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 OVER THE MUCH COOLER PACIFIC WATERS WEST OF THE PENINSULA...AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD DISSIPATE BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGHOUT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 320/04. MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM EARLIER TONIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE TO THE EAST AND MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MANUEL SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A RIDGE CENTERED WELL TO THE EAST. A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO WEAKEN BY 36 TO 48 HOURS. AS A RESULT...MANUEL WILL SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD BY 72 HOURS AND THEN SOUTHWESTWARD BY 96 HOURS AS A WEAK RIDGE REBUILDS TO THE NORTHWEST. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF DAYS...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE GFS...GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND ECMWF. THIS ADJUSTMENT RESULTS IN MANUEL REMAINING OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA UNTIL AROUND 72 HOURS. LATER IN THE PERIOD THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS ALL SHOW A SHARP SOUTHWESTWARD TURN. THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GENERAL TREND BUT WITH A MORE GRADUAL BEND IN THE MOTION...AND LIES TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTH...OF THOSE AIDS AT DAYS 3 AND 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 23.2N 107.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1800Z 23.6N 108.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0600Z 24.1N 108.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1800Z 24.3N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0600Z 24.5N 109.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0600Z 24.2N 110.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 22/0600Z 23.5N 111.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-09-18 04:53:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180253 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...PROBABLY DUE TO THE MODEST EASTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW FROM MAZATLAN BRINGING IN DRY AIR FROM THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. ALTHOUGH SOME BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT...THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION WEST OF MAZATLAN HAS BEEN DECREASING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T1.0/25 KT FROM SAB...T2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB...AND A UW-CIMSS ADT VALUE OF T2.4/34 KT. MANUEL CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD...OR 315/05 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED AS MANUEL MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NARROW MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. BY 48-72 HOURS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OFF OF THE COASTS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND NORTHWESTERN BAJA CALIFORNIA IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD AND WEAKEN THE RIDGE...CAUSING THE STEERING FLOW TO ALSO WEAKEN. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN BAJA AND INTO THE COLD WATERS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY 96 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE NHC TRACK GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE REMAINS EMBEDDED IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER 29C SSTS. BY 48-72 HOURS...THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN BAJA SHOULD DISRUPT THE CIRCULATION AND BEGIN TO INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. AFTER PASSING OVER SOUTHERN BAJA...MORE RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD OCCUR WITH MANUEL BECOMING A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND DISSIPATING BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND REMAINS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT MANUEL COULD PEAK AT A SLIGHTLY HIGHER INTENSITY BETWEEN 36 AND 48 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 23.0N 107.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 23.4N 108.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 109.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 24.3N 109.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 24.6N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 22/0000Z 23.9N 111.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion manuel tropical

 

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 31

2013-09-18 04:48:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 180248 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013 THE TROPICAL STORM IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED THIS EVENING. ONLY SOME FRAGMENTED BANDS ARE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ELONGATED CIRCULATION...WITH THE CENTER ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CONVECTION. AN ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS... AND 35 KT IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER MARGINAL SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SHIPS/ LGEM ARE HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND SHOW HUMBERTO CLOSE TO A HURRICANE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT AND FORECAST SSTS FROM SHIPS SEEM TOO HIGH COMPARED WITH AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS. THUS... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL REMAINS ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE... CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE SINCE THE CIRCULATION IS NOT VERY COMPACT...BUT IS ESTIMATED AT 345/6. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SHOULD TURN HUMBERTO TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN THE 48-72H PERIOD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND ABSORBED WITHIN A LARGER MID-LATITUDE LOW IN 4-5 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE IS VERY TIGHTLY PACKED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 30.8N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 31.6N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 32.8N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 34.3N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 36.3N 41.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 43.0N 35.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 22/0000Z 54.5N 24.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 23/0000Z...ABSORBED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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