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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-09-14 01:53:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132353 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 700 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 DATA FROM NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS STRENGTHENED. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO 993 MB...AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS INDICATE THAT THE INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA FROM MEXICO INDICATE THE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS ALSO IMPROVED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A CDO FEATURE AND A LARGE CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE OBSERVED INTENSIFICATION AND NOW SHOWS INGRID REACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY IN 48 HOURS. AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD HAS EXPANDED IN SIZE...AND THE INITIAL AND FORECAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED OUTWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AND THE NEW NHC INTENSITY FORECAST. NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST. AS A RESULT OF THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST...A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED THREAT OF WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. NOTE THAT THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY TAKES THE PLACE OF THE 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0000Z 19.2N 95.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-09-13 22:43:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132043 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST THAN ESTIMATED EARLIER THIS MORNING...WITH A GROWING BALL OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 35 KT...AND THIS IS USED AS THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE THE AREA OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS IS SMALL...THE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MUCH LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE THAT CONTAINS LOTS OF STRONG WINDS NOT DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS STRUCTURE MAKES THE INTENSITY FORECAST TRICKY SINCE OTHER ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SEEM CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS FROM ASCAT...MANUEL SHOULD HAVE A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC PREDICTION IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE CONSENSUS AT THE UPPER END OF THE GUIDANCE SPECTRUM. INSTEAD OF A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OCCURRING...IT SEEMS LIKE MANUEL IS HEADING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...295/5. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE STILL SUGGEST THE STORM SHOULD TAKE A NORTHWARD TURN RELATIVELY SOON DUE TO THE RIDGE WEAKENING OVER MEXICO. HOWEVER... THE MODEL SPREAD HAS GROWN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE NORMALLY RELIABLE ECMWF A FAIR DISTANCE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS NOT A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST WITH THE GLOBAL MODELS STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THE INTERACTION OF THE RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SHIFTED WESTWARD...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISING IF FURTHER WESTWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 15.6N 102.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.0N 102.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 102.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.9N 102.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 18.9N 103.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-09-13 22:43:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 132043 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 THE OUTFLOW FROM TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS CAUSING A LITTLE BIT OF SHEAR...AND THE CENTER OF INGRID IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS. OVERALL...THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE CLOUD PATTERN...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KNOTS. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM A DROPSONDE FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET EARLIER TODAY WAS 999 MB. SINCE THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IN AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL. WE NOTE...HOWEVER...THAT THE STATISTICAL SHIPS MODEL CALLS FOR INGRID TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH NEAR THE TIME OF LANDFALL. INGRID IS CURRENTLY TRAPPED IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE ERRATICALLY FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...MOST OF GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GFS AND THE ECMWF FORECAST INGRID TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE REDEVELOPS OVER TEXAS...INGRID SHOULD MAKE A SHARP LEFT TURN TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND THEN MOVE INLAND. THIS IS THE SCENARIO USED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AT THIS TIME...BUT I WILL NOT BE SURPRISED IF INGRID NEVER GETS OUT OF THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND MANUEL WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. AT THIS TIME...THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 19.2N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 19.5N 95.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 20.8N 95.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 21.7N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 22.3N 97.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 22.5N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1800Z 22.5N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 21

2013-09-13 22:41:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 132041 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN STRUGGLING TO REDEVELOP NEAR HUMBERTO IN THE FACE OF SOME RATHER STRONG SHEAR. DVORAK CONSTRAINTS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF ABOUT 45 KT...THOUGH THIS COULD BE REFINED A BIT AFTER THE NEXT SCATTEROMETER PASS. AN EXTREMELY LARGE UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IS CONTINUING TO SHEAR HUMBERTO. THIS SHEAR IS NOT FORECAST TO ABATE FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE HUMBERTO DROP TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT SOME POINT DURING THAT TIME. HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INSIST THAT THE STORM WILL FIND A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MOST OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE SHOWS HUMBERTO AS A HURRICANE AGAIN BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AGAIN REDUCED IN THE SHORTER TERM...BUT IS KEPT THE SAME AT THE END. THE MOTION HAS SHIFTED A BIT FARTHER TO THE LEFT...NOW 290/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC REASONING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE A STRONG RIDGE STEERS THE STORM BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE CONTINUE TO BE LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW FAST HUMBERTO RECURVES OUT TO SEA...WITH THE GFS/GEFS SUGGESTING A MUCH FASTER TRACK THAN MOST OF THE OTHER MODELS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE IS TRENDING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHWEST...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN THAT WAY...FAIRLY CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 25.0N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 25.4N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 26.3N 36.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 27.3N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 28.2N 40.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 30.4N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 32.5N 45.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 36.0N 45.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Remnants of GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 22

2013-09-13 22:17:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132016 TCDAT2 REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 THE STORM-MOTION-RELATIVE CENTER OF GABRIELLE BECAME A LITTLE EASIER TO IDENTIFY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA THAT INDICATED THE CIRCULATION WAS NO LONGER CLOSED. THEREFORE...THIS IS THE FINAL NHC ADVISORY. THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ARE MOVING RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH- NORTHEAST AT ABOUT 30 KT. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANT TROUGH WILL MOVE RAPIDLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE BEING ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED...HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE GALE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF ATLANTIC CANADA TODAY AND TOMORROW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 42.0N 64.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY

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