Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Storm LORENA Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-09-06 11:01:04| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 06 2013

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Remnants of GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-09-06 04:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060245 TCDAT2 REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE LANDMASS OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST...OVER AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTERACTING WITH OR POSSIBLY MERGING WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND USERS SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THAT HAZARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.0N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number discussion forecast remnants

 
 

Tropical Storm LORENA Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-09-06 04:42:35| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 800 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm LORENA Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-09-05 22:46:29| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2013

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-09-05 22:36:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 052036 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 GABRIELLE IS BEING GENEROUSLY MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT THIS TIME...AS THERE IS JUST ENOUGH OF A CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO KEEP IT FROM BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THE CYCLONE REMAINS VERY BADLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER NOW SEPARATED FROM THE MID-LEVEL CENTER BY ABOUT 180 N MI. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 25 KT BASED ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA...AND THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS NEAR 1010 MB BASED ON MULTIPLE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. WHILE CONVECTION CONTINUES NEAR THE MID-LEVEL CENTER...THERE ARE NO SIGNS AT THIS TIME THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS TRYING TO RE-FORM THERE. IF THAT DOES NOT OCCUR...GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE TERRAIN OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ENCOUNTERS INCREASING WESTERLY SHEAR...AND MOVES INTO A DRIER AIR MASS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE CYCLONE TO COMPLETELY DISSIPATE AFTER 24 HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST A LOW PRESSURE AREA TO DEVELOP SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA DURING THE NEXT 2-4 DAYS. WHETHER THIS WILL VERIFY...AND WHETHER THE LOW DEVELOPS FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE OR FROM ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TO ITS NORTHEAST...IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 305/8. LOW-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF GABRIELLE SHOULD ALLOW A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST TO OCCUR UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 18.2N 68.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 19.2N 69.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 20.8N 70.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Sites : [1218] [1219] [1220] [1221] [1222] [1223] [1224] [1225] [1226] [1227] [1228] [1229] [1230] [1231] [1232] [1233] [1234] [1235] [1236] [1237] next »