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Tropical Depression INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 19
2013-09-17 04:33:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170233 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM THE BROWNSVILLE TEXAS WSR-88D DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS INCREASED AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED TO -80C AND COLDER JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER...AND BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA. BASED ON THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE...INGRID IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AS FRICTION WEAKENS THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION GETS DISRUPTED BY THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS...WHICH LIE JUST TO THE WEST OF INGRID. INGRID HAS SLOWED ITS WESTWARD MOTION AND IS NOW MOVING 270/04 KT. THE DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY DUE TO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION OF THE CYCLONE BEGINNING TO PUSH UP AGAINST THE HIGH SIERRA MADRE MOUNTAIN RANGE. THE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD AT A FASTER SPEED...CAUSING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION TO DECOUPLE AND MOVE MORE SLOWLY TO THE WEST OR EVEN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS. INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN 12 TO 24 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...ESPECIALLY IN STRONG UPSLOPE REGIONS OF EASTWARD-FACING MOUNTAIN RANGES TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE CENTER. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 23.7N 99.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1200Z 23.7N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-09-16 22:47:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 162047 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT INGRID CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. THE ESTIMATED INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED ON A FEW SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THAT HAVE SHOWN DECREASING WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND SHOULD DISSIPATE TONIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY OVER THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS. SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS FINALLY TURNED WESTWARD. A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHEST IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 23.7N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0600Z 23.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 25
2013-09-16 17:01:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 161501 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST MON SEP 16 2013 DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO HAS BEEN BURSTING DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS...AND THE DISTANCE BETWEEN THE CONVECTION AND THE CENTER HAS BEEN GRADUALLY DECREASING. THE SYSTEM NOW HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ON HUMBERTO HAVE BEEN RESTARTED. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT BASED ON TWO ASCAT PASSES FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS THAT INDICATED WINDS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. A CONSERVATIVE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO A COL AREA IN BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC AND A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AT A SLOW FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD CAUSE HUMBERTO TO TURN NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA AND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SLOWER AND MORE-EASTERLY ECWMF AND THE FASTER AND MORE-WESTERLY GFS. VERY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO RELAX SOME AS THE TROUGH CUTS OFF AND SHIFTS GENERALLY SOUTHWARD OF THE CYCLONE. THE RELATIVE RELAXATION IN SHEAR FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...ALONG WITH A TRACK OVER WARMER WATERS...SHOULD ALLOW HUMBERTO TO INTENSIFY A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH ON DAYS 3-5 IS LIKELY TO SPEED UP THE RATE OF INTENSIFICATION. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS FORECAST TO HAVE OCCURRED BY DAY 5. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND LGEM THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 27.2N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/0000Z 28.2N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 17/1200Z 29.5N 44.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 30.2N 44.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 31.1N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 33.1N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 36.7N 40.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 44.7N 32.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 17
2013-09-16 16:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161453 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT INGRID MADE LANDFALL NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO SHORTLY BEFORE 1200 UTC THIS MORNING. THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED PEAK 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 65 KT AND BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 50 KT. THESE DATA INDICATE THAT INGRID WAS BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE HIGHEST WIND OBSERVED IN MEXICO WAS FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION NEAR LA PESCA MEXICO THAT REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 43 KT WITH A GUST TO 56 KT AROUND THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KT...AND THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER INLAND TODAY. INGRID IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE SIERRE MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAINS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. INGRID HAS NOT YET MADE THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN...AS THE INITIAL MOTION IS STILL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TURN WESTWARD SOON...WITH THE TRACK FORECAST TO BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE INGRID WEAKENS OVER LAND TONIGHT. INGRID AND ITS REMNANTS ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 23.8N 98.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/0000Z 23.4N 99.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/1200Z 22.8N 100.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-09-16 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160834 TCDEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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