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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 16

2013-09-16 10:33:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160833 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT MON SEP 16 2013 ALTHOUGH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS RELAXED A LITTLE OVER INGRID...THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE HURRICANE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE CENTER LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM SAB AND TAFB RANGE FROM 55 KT TO 77 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. IT APPEARS THAT THE WINDOW FOR ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING PRIOR TO LANDFALL IS CLOSING...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. THE NHC WIND FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST LGEM PREDICTION. GEOSTATIONARY AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES...ALONG WITH THE BROWNSVILLE WSR-88D RADAR...INDICATE THAT THE CENTER HAS GAINED A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE AND THE MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 285/6. HOWEVER...THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A TURN TOWARD THE WEST A LITTLE LATER TODAY AND A TURN TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST BY TONIGHT. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH STEERING BY THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS ALONG WITH INTERACTION WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO. THE LATTER FEATURE TYPICALLY INDUCES A LEFTWARD BEND IN THE MOTION FOR LANDFALLING TROPICAL CYCLONES IN THIS REGION. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO THE LATEST HWRF MODEL TRACK. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 23.4N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1800Z 23.3N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 24H 17/0600Z 22.8N 99.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1800Z 22.3N 99.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0600Z 22.0N 100.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 15

2013-09-16 04:56:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160256 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND WSR-88D RADAR DATA FROM BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THE IMPROVED ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS ABATED...AT LEAST FOR THE MEAN TIME. AROUND 21-22Z...A NOAA AIRCRAFT MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 987 MB. SINCE THAT TIME...THE PRESSURE HAS RISEN SLIGHTLY TO AROUND 989 MB. THE HIGHEST WIND DATA OBSERVED THUS FAR HAVE BEEN 76 KT AT 850 MB...62-63 KT SFMR BIAS-ADJUSTED...DROPSONDE MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS OF 64 KT...AND A DROPSONDE SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NEAR 65 KT... WHICH MEANS THAT INGRID IS BARELY MAINTAINING HURRICANE STATUS. AFTER A SLIGHT JOG TO THE NORTHWEST EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...INGRID APPEARS TO HAVE RETURNED TO ITS PREVIOUS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE OF 290/05 KT. AS A RESULT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING ARE REQUIRED. HURRICANE INGRID SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN WESTWARD AND THEN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL...WHICH SHOULD OCCUR IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCA. A COMPARISON OF RADAR FIXES AT 35000 FEET AND THE RECONNAISSANCE SURFACE POSITIONS INDICATE THAT MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL TILTING THE UPPER-LEVEL VORTEX TO THE EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH THE TIME OF LANDFALL...WHICH MEANS THAT SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NOW THAT INGRID IS MOVING INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT MOVES INLAND OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 23.1N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 23.2N 97.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 22.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/1200Z 22.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 18/0000Z 22.1N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-09-16 04:55:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160255 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 MANUEL HAS BEEN INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR MORE THAN 6 HOURS...AND THE LAND INTERACTION IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM. THE VERTICAL CIRCULATION HAS DECOUPLED...WITH THE SURFACE PRESSURE MINIMUM LOCATED NEAR THE COAST TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANZANILLO WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CENTER HAS MOVED WELL INLAND OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SINCE THERE HAVE BEEN NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...MANUEL IS ESTIMATED TO HAVE WEAKENED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL IS LOSING STRENGTH...IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWESTWARD. ALTHOUGH DISSIPATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS...SOME OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD REDEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN THE SYSTEM NEARS THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THE MAIN HAZARD IS TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... WHICH COULD PERSIST FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 19.8N 104.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 20.7N 105.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-09-15 22:44:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 152044 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 15 2013 AMBIGUITIES FROM A 1618 UTC ASCAT-B PASS SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER OF MANUEL MADE LANDFALL NEAR MANZANILLO EARLIER THIS MORNING. THE PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT WINDS WITHIN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE ARE NO HIGHER THAN 35 KT. FURTHERMORE...CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE THAT TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS CONSERVATIVELY BEEN LOWERED TO 40 KT...SINCE STRONGER WINDS MAY STILL BE PRESENT IN BANDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS WHILE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SURFACE CIRCULATION OF MANUEL WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 320/08. MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE STEERED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY A LARGE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. GULF COAST. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS GENERAL MOTION WILL CONTINUE WHILE THE CIRCULATION REMAINS INTACT. THERE IS SOME DISCREPANCY BEYOND 24 HOURS AND SOME MODELS...NOTABLY THE HWRF...GFDL...AND ECMWF...SHOW A TRACK TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENNISULA. HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO IS BEING DISCOUNTED FOR NOW SINCE THE VORTEX TRACKER APPLIED TO THESE MODELS SEEMS TO FOLLOW ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHILE MANUEL DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 19.2N 104.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 20.3N 105.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1800Z 21.4N 106.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/ZELINSKY

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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 14

2013-09-15 22:32:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 152031 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT SUN SEP 15 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND DROPSONDE DATA FROM A NOAA G-IV MISSION INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF INGRID REMAINS NEAR THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. ALTHOUGH INGRID DOES NOT RESEMBLE A CLASSIC HURRICANE IN SATELLITE PICTURES...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 65 KT BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS. A COUPLE OF RECONNAISSANCE PLANES...ONE FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE...AND THE OTHER A NOAA P-3 RESEARCH MISSION...SHOULD PROVIDE A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE STRENGTH AND SIZE OF INGRID THIS EVENING. MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DECREASE ABOUT THE TIME OF LANDFALL. THEREFORE...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL...ALTHOUGH INGRID COULD BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER BETWEEN THE 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT AND LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN RAPIDLY ONCE IT IS INLAND OVER MEXICO. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. INGRID SHOULD TURN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER TEXAS TONIGHT...THEN BEND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER LANDFALL. THERE IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON THE TIMING OF LANDFALL... AND THE NHC FORECAST GENERALLY SPLITS THESE DIFFERENCES AND IS CLOSE TO THE SPEED OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND AND STORM SURGE THREATS...TORRENTIAL RAINS FROM BOTH INGRID AND EASTERN PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM MANUEL ARE EXPECTED OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 22.7N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 23.0N 98.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0600Z 22.6N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1800Z 22.2N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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