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Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-09-13 10:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130851 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10 HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION PRIMARILY IN RAGGED BANDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM TAFB AND 30 KT FROM SAB. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM MEXICAN BUOYS AND OIL RIGS AT THIS TIME...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND NONE ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/2. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A CONTINUED ERRATIC MOTION. AFTER THAT...A COMBINATION OF A UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO AND LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION THAN IT WAS PREVIOUSLY...WITH THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE CONSENSUS MODELS SHOWING LANDFALL IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS ALSO FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS TRACK...ALTHOUGH OUT OF DEFERENCE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IT IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT WHILE THE NEW TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...IT LIES TO THE WEST OF THE GFS AND ECMWF... WHICH FORECAST A SMALL LOOP FOLLOWED BY A NORTHWARD MOTION BEFORE TURNING THE SYSTEM NORTHWESTWARD. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST THUS REMAINS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THAT TIME. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL...AND THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS THE SAME 55-KT PEAK INTENSITY AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL. NONE OF THE RELIABLE GUIDANCE CURRENTLY MAKES THE CYCLONE A HURRICANE. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 19.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 19.7N 94.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 20.0N 94.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 20.6N 95.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 23.0N 97.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 23.5N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 120H 18/0600Z 24.5N 100.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Hurricane HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 19

2013-09-13 10:49:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130849 TCDAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 HUMBERTO IS ON A WEAKENING TREND...AND IT IS BARELY HANGING ON TO HURRICANE STATUS. LATEST GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS LOSING ORGANIZATION...AND MICROWAVE IMAGES REVEAL THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CLOUDINESS. THIS ASYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN IS DUE TO 20-25 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 65 KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT...AND THIS ESTIMATE COULD BE GENEROUS. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE LEFT AS THE STEERING FLOW IS BECOMING MORE DOMINATED BY A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO ITS NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 335/10. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE. A TURN BACK TO THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO OCCUR IN 4 TO 5 DAYS WHEN HUMBERTO MOVES INTO A PRONOUNCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE HUMBERTO REMAINS OVER 25-26C WATERS AND MOVES INTO EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND A DRIER AIRMASS. BEYOND THAT TIME...THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATER. THESE MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO RE-INTENSIFY. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO DEEPENING IN 3 TO 5 DAYS WHEN IT INTERACTS WITH A COUPLE OF UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHS. THE NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS NOT TOO DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 24.4N 30.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 25.2N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 26.0N 33.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 27.1N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 28.2N 38.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 30.3N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 32.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 35.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Hurricane HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 18

2013-09-13 04:53:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 130253 TCDAT4 HURRICANE HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 MICROWAVE IMAGERY...FROM METOP AND SSMIS...INDICATE THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS BECOMING DISLOCATED FROM THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF HUMBERTO. SO WHILE THE HURRICANE IS STILL PRODUCTING QUITE COLD CLOUD TOPS...WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM HAS APPARENTLY BEGUN. THE INTENSITY OF 70 KT IS A BLEND OF THE HIGHER SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB WITH THE LOWER ADT. A RECENT ASCAT SCATTEROMETER PASS ALSO INDICATED THAT THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO GROW LARGER...WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT ALMOST 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE AFOREMENTIONED DISPLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTION IS BEING CAUSED BY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OF OVER 30 KT...PRIMARILY DUE TO A RATHER ROBUST TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE WEST OF HUMBERTO. THIS STRONG SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH...IN COMBINATION WITH MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS...SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING. AT THE LONGER TIME RANGE...THE SHEAR IS PREDICTED TO LESSEN DUE TO THE FILLING OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHILE HUMBERTO ALSO REACHES WARMER WATERS. THE GFS MODEL SUGGESTS THIS REDUCTION IN SHEAR WILL OCCUR IN ABOUT THREE DAYS...WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL WAITS UNTIL FOUR OR EVEN FIVE DAYS FOR THIS TO OCCUR. THIS DIFFERENCE LEADS TO SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY IN HOW MUCH OF A CYCLONE WILL REMAIN AND WHETHER IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY RE-INTENSIFY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS IN THE FIRST THREE DAYS AND BELOW IT THEREAFTER. HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING AT 10 KT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...AS IT IS PROGRESSING THROUGH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE. IN ABOUT A DAY...A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE REBUILDS NEAR THE AZORES AND SHOULD ABRUPTLY TURN HUMBERTO TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. BY DAY FIVE...HUMBERTO SHOULD BE ROUNDING THIS RIDGE AND BEGINNING RECURVATURE. THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...BUT ARE SOMEWHAT FASTER AND FARTHER NORTH THAN THE PREVIOUS CYCLE. THE TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LAST ADVISORY AND AN AVERAGE OF THE GFS/ECMWF/FIM GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 23.4N 29.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 24.4N 30.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 32.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 26.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 29.5N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 31.5N 44.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 34.5N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

Tags: number discussion forecast hurricane

Tropical Storm GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 19

2013-09-13 04:52:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130252 TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 PM AST THU SEP 12 2013 ONCE AGAIN DEEP CONVECTION HAS LARGELY DISAPPEARED NEAR THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT...BUT THIS COULD BE GENEROUS. WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE ACCELERATES NORTHEASTWARD AND IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 36 HOURS OR PERHAPS A LITTLE SOONER. GABRIELLE IS NOW MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 015 DEGREES AT ABOUT 9 KNOTS AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. GABRIELLE SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...AND THE NHC TRACK IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH DISSIPATION. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 35.1N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 38.0N 66.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 43.8N 64.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

Tropical Depression TEN Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-09-13 04:51:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 130251 TCDAT5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT THU SEP 12 2013 THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION FEATURES A PRIMARY BAND SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER THAT HAS SHOWN A LITTLE MORE CURVATURE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. WHILE THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER VERY WARM WATER...MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN ONLY GRADUAL STRENGTHENING FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT TIME UPPER-LEVEL WINDS MAY BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED MOST STRONGLY BY THE GFS MODEL...WHICH DRIVES THE SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD A BIT...BUT REMAINS BELOW THE SHIPS MODEL. IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TAKE THE CYCLONE INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN GULF COAST OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND THEREFORE SHOW A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE SLOWING DOWN...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/02. STEERING CURRENTS WILL REMAIN WEAK FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND SLOW ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THAT TIME. BY 72 HOURS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A FASTER MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST. THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SHIFTED NORTHWARD THIS CYCLE IN RESPONSE TO THE GFS SHOWING A SOMEWHAT WEAKER RIDGE AND A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK AT DAYS 3 AND 4. THE NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED IN THAT DIRECTION AND IS CLOSE TO TVCA... BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE GFS AND ECMWF. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS STILL ORGANIZING...AND THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE LARGER THAN USUAL. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 19.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 19.6N 94.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 19.4N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 19.4N 94.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 19.8N 94.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 21.5N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 23.0N 98.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 24.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

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