Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Tropical Depression MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 13

2013-09-17 22:32:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 172032 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 PM PDT TUE SEP 17 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL HAVE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED WITH MORE PRONOUNCED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION. A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM ALSO HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION...AND BASED ON THESE DATA ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON MANUEL. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ASCAT DATA AND A COUPLE OF SHIP OBSERVATIONS OF 25 KT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER EARLIER TODAY. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE IT REMAINS IN A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE HIGHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE. AFTER 48 HOURS...INTERACTION WITH THE BAJA PENINSULA AND THE INGESTION OF STABLE AIR FROM WEST OF THE PENINSULA IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE WEAKENING. MANUEL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN WESTWARD AFTER IT WEAKENS. THE NHC FORECAST LIES BETWEEN THE TYPICALLY RELIABLE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 22.6N 107.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 23.0N 107.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 23.5N 108.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 24.1N 109.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 24.5N 110.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 24.5N 111.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 21/1800Z 24.0N 111.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number discussion manuel tropical

 

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 30

2013-09-17 22:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 172032 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 PM AST TUE SEP 17 2013 HUMBERTO HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH SINCE THIS MORNING...AND IT STILL HAS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN BAND THAT EXTENDS ABOUT THREE-QUARTERS OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 40 KT...WHICH IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS. THE STORM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE SHEAR TO RELAX A LITTLE. THIS UPPER-LEVEL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO... AND HUMBERTO COULD LOSE SOME OF THE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE THAT OCCURS. REGARDLESS...THE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC ENVIRONMENTS FAVOR SLIGHT STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT IT LIES ON THE LOW SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL IN 3 TO 4 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE CYCLONE DEGENERATING INTO A TROUGH BEFORE THAT OCCURS. HUMBERTO HAS BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS. A SLOWER NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDDED IN THE STRONGER FLOW TO THE EAST OF AN APPROACHING DEEP-LAYER TROUGH. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/2100Z 30.3N 42.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 18/0600Z 30.9N 43.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 18/1800Z 32.0N 43.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 19/0600Z 33.3N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 19/1800Z 35.0N 42.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 20/1800Z 40.7N 37.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 21/1800Z 51.5N 27.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 28

2013-09-17 10:46:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170846 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 28 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 AM AST TUE SEP 17 2013 HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH CYCLES OF HAVING DEEP CONVECTION NEAR ITS CENTER TO BEING SHEARED WITH ALL THE CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. AS OF RIGHT NOW...CONVECTION HAS RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER...AND THERE ARE SIGNS THAT THE SHEAR MAY BE RELAXING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 35 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5 FROM TAFB AND EARLIER ASCAT DATA. THE LOWEST PRESSURE MEASURED BY A DROPSONDE FROM A RECENT NASA GLOBAL HAWK MISSION WAS 1009 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 15 KT...INDICATING THAT THE MINIMUM PRESSURE IS PROBABLY A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. THE WAXING AND WANING OF CONVECTION HAS CAUSED THE SURFACE CENTER TO JUMP AND MEANDER FOR THE PAST 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT HUMBERTO IS NOW MOVING AGAIN...AND A LONGER-TERM AVERAGE YIELDS AN ESTIMATED MOTION OF 020/4 KT. THE STORM IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A HIGH-AMPLITUDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING OFF THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. THE RESULTANT STEERING FLOW IS FORECAST TO PUSH HUMBERTO GENERALLY TO THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...AND THEN THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST BEGINNING ON DAY 3 AS THE TROUGH GETS CLOSER. THE HWRF IS THE MAIN OUTLIER IN THE GUIDANCE SUITE...SHOWING A MUCH SLOWER MOTION AND A TRACK TO THE EAST BY DAY 5. THE REST OF THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA TO DOWNPLAY THE INFLUENCE OF THE HWRF SOLUTION. THE CIRCULATIONS OF HUMBERTO AND A NEARBY MID-/UPPER-LEVEL LOW ARE BECOMING COLLOCATED...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE VERTICAL SHEAR NEAR THE CYCLONE TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THEREFORE... GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...MORE OR LESS IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. HUMBERTO IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4...AND EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER WATER BY THAT TIME...BAROCLINIC INFLUENCES COULD ALLOW STRENGTHENING TO CONTINUE A BIT LONGER. A 5-DAY POSITION IS STILL SHOWN FOR CONTINUITY...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HUMBERTO COULD BE ABSORBED BY ANOTHER LARGER EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 27.8N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 28.9N 43.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 29.8N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 30.7N 43.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 31.9N 43.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 35.5N 40.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 45.0N 33.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 22/0600Z 54.0N 26.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Remnants of INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 20

2013-09-17 10:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170839 TCDAT5 REMNANTS OF INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER AND CIRCULATION OF INGRID HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INGRID HAS DISSIPATED...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH INGRID HAS DISSIPATED...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS... PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES IN THE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 23.7N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG

Tags: number discussion forecast ingrid

 

Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 27

2013-09-17 04:34:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 170234 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST MON SEP 16 2013 HUMBERTO HAS WEAKENED A LITTLE THIS EVENING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS SEPARATED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION AND IS NOW LOCATED ABOUT 60 NMI TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AN ASCAT PASS AROUND 0000 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT...WHICH IS CONSIDERABLY LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PASS FROM EARLIER TODAY. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS CONSERVATIVELY LOWERED TO 35 KT...ASSUMING THAT STRONGER WINDS COULD BE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT...WHICH WAS NOT CAPTURED BY THE ASCAT DATA. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AS IT IS CURRENTLY ENTANGLED WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVERNIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY...HOWEVER...AND THEN TURN NORTHWARD ON WEDNESDAY WHEN IT MOVES ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...A FASTER NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST WHEN THE STORM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. STRONG SHEAR AND DRY AIR...PARTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW...ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING HUMBERTO. THIS UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...CREATING A MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC PATTERN FOR HUMBERTO TO STRENGTHEN. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE RECENT WEAKENING AND TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE. HUMBERTO IS FORECAST TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN 4 TO 5 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0300Z 27.0N 43.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 17/1200Z 28.0N 44.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 18/0000Z 29.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 18/1200Z 30.0N 45.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 19/0000Z 30.9N 45.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 20/0000Z 33.7N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 21/0000Z 40.0N 37.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 22/0000Z 52.0N 26.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [1201] [1202] [1203] [1204] [1205] [1206] [1207] [1208] [1209] [1210] [1211] [1212] [1213] [1214] [1215] [1216] [1217] [1218] [1219] [1220] next »