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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 7
2013-09-15 04:41:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 150241 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. AN ELONGATED CDO FEATURE HAS FORMED AND CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE DEVELOPED AROUND WELL-DEFINED 15 NMI DIAMETER EYE. INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE T4.0/65 KT FROM TAFB AND A 14/2215Z CIRA AMSU OVERPASS...AND T3.5 FROM SAB. BASED ON A BLEND OF THESE DATA AND THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE EYE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT...WHICH COULD BE CONSERVATIVE GIVEN THAT MANUEL LOOKS STRIKINGLY SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO HURRICANE INGRID LOCATED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT...BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. MANUEL APPEARS TO HAVE WOBBLED A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...BUT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT MANUEL HAS BEEN HOLDING A STEADY NORTHWARD COURSE FOR THE PAST 5 HOURS. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE SOUTHERN U.S. WESTWARD OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...FORCING MANUEL TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. THE FORECAST TRACK WAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST DUE TO THE MORE EASTWARD INITIAL POSITION...BUT OTHERWISE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED RIGHT UP UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS...VERY WARM WATER...MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT...AND THE PRESENCE OF A WELL-DEFINED EYE. AS A RESULT...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO. ONCE THE CYCLONE MOVES INLAND...HOWEVER...RAPID WEAKENING OF THE WIND FIELD SHOULD OCCUR OWING TO THE HIGH MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL COULD MAKE IT INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...THE CIRCULATION WILL LIKELY BE SO DISRUPTED THAT REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THE 34-KT WIND AND 12-FT SEAS RADII WERE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST BASED ON SHIP REPORTS IN THOSE QUADRANTS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.2N 102.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 18.1N 102.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 19.4N 103.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 20.6N 104.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Hurricane INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-09-14 22:40:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142039 TCDAT5 HURRICANE INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 PM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 THE NEXT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA OF INGRID UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN PRESENT INTERMITTENTLY ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES...AND DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES...INCLUDING THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN...INDICATE THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A HURRICANE WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS. INGRID IS THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2013 SEASON. BOTH OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO... BEFORE THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE CONSENSUS...BUT NOT AS HIGH AS THE LGEM/SHIPS MODEL PAIR. NONE OF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE FORECASTS INGRID TO BECOME AN MAJOR HURRICANE. INGRID HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AT ABOUT 6 OR 7 KNOTS AWAY FROM THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. SOON...A MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND WILL FORCE THE HURRICANE TO TURN WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO. WHILE THE THE WESTWARD TURN IS VERY LIKELY TO OCCUR...AS SHOWN BY ALL THE MODELS...THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF LANDFALL. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWEST MODEL...KEEPING INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 60 HOURS OR MORE WHILE THE NHC FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE NHC TRACK IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...GIVING CREDIT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TURN INDICATED BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 21.3N 94.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 22.0N 94.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 22.7N 95.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 22.8N 97.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 22.5N 98.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/1800Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1800Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-14 16:50:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 141449 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 MANUEL CONTINUES TO GET BETTER ORGANIZED WITH CONVECTION ON THE UPSWING. A CURVED BAND IS NOW WRAPPING MOST OF THE WAY AROUND THE CENTER...WITH AN IRREGULAR CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FORMING. WHILE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...THE DUSSELDORF EXPRESS REPORTED A PRESSURE OF ABOUT 997 MB WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...SUGGESTING A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF MANUEL OF 994 MB OR SO. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 45 KT...A BIT ABOVE THE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND NEAR THE KNAFF-ZEHR-COURTNEY WIND-PRESSURE RELATIONSHIP. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND MANUEL COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 50 KT SHOWN BELOW BEFORE LANDFALL. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATE ON SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY. THE STORM IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...ABOUT 355/5. MANUEL SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY OVER MEXICO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST PATH...AND THE LATEST NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.2N 102.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 18.3N 103.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z 19.5N 104.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 16/1200Z 20.5N 104.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-09-14 16:46:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 141445 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS IMPROVED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INGRID HAS INTENSIFIED. THE PEAK WIND REPORTED SO FAR BY THE AIR FORCE PLANE WAS 76 KNOTS AT 850 MB NORTH OF THE CENTER A FEW MINUTES AGO. ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 60 KNOTS. CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND INGRID IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER THAT...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED BECAUSE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT SHEAR COULD INCREASE SOME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE FORECAST VALUES PROVIDED BY THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. INGRID MOVED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT BUT IT IS NOW MOVING NORTHWARD OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 KNOTS. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IN ABOUT A DAY...AND THIS STEERING PATTERN WILL FORCE INGRID TO MOVE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK IN 24 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE WESTWARD TURN HAS A VERY HIGH PROBABILITY TO OCCUR AS INDICATED BY ALL MODELS...THE TIMING OF THE CYCLONE CROSSING THE COAST OF MEXICO VARIES AMONG THE GUIDANCE. THE SLOWEST MODEL IS THE GFS WHICH KEEPS INGRID OVER WATER FOR ABOUT 3 MORE DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND BRINGS THE CENTER OF INGRID NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 20.6N 94.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 21.4N 94.4W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 22.0N 94.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 22.5N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 22.5N 97.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 22.0N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/1200Z 21.5N 99.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-09-14 10:56:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140856 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT SAT SEP 14 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT INGRID HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH CLOUD TOPS OF COLDER THAN -80C NEAR THE CENTER AND INCREASING OUTER BANDING IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST. A TRMM OVERPASS AT 0420 UTC SHOWED A PARTIAL EYEWALL IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE....ALTHOUGH DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR IN ALVARADO SUGGESTS THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE BEEN TRANSIENT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KT FROM TAFB AND 45 KT FROM SAB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...PERHAPS CONSERVATIVELY...PENDING THE ARRIVAL OF NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. INGRID HAS STARTED TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INITIAL MOTION OF 015/3. A GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE WEST AS THE STORM ENCOUNTERS STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. THE TRACK GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH WITH SOME NOTABLE ISSUES OF SPREAD. FIRST...THE GFS AND ECMWF CALL FOR A MORE NORTHEASTWARD INITIAL MOTION BEFORE THE WESTWARD TURN...WITH BOTH MODELS LYING TO THE EAST OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. SECOND...THE GUIDANCE LANDFALL POINTS IN MEXICO ARE SPREAD FROM TUXPAN TO NORTH OF LA PESCA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. HOWEVER...THE MODEL SPREAD INDICATES A LOWER-THAN-NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THAT INGRID WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL FORECAST 15-25 KT OF SHEAR DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS...WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS LESS SHEAR. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY POOR AGREEMENT. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS FORECAST INGRID TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 36 HOURS...WHILE THE GFDL AND HWRF MODEL FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO PEAK IN 24 HOURS AND SUBSEQUENTLY WEAKEN BEFORE LANDFALL. SINCE THE CURRENT SHEAR HAS NOT STOPPED INGRID FROM INTENSIFYING...THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALONG WITH SHIPS AND LGEM...AND MAKES INGRID A HURRICANE IN 36 HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AT THE UPPER EDGE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 19.8N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 20.5N 95.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 21.5N 95.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 22.2N 96.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 22.4N 97.7W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR COAST OF MEXICO 72H 17/0600Z 22.5N 99.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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