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Tropical Depression THIRTEEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-09-13 17:03:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 131503 TCDEP3 TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MEXICO HAS ENOUGH OF A WELL-DEFINED CENTER AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 30 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. THE DEPRESSION IS IN A RELATIVELY LOW-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT OVER WARM WATERS...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR SOME STRENGTHENING. THE MAIN INHIBITING FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ITS PROXIMITY TO LAND...AND ITS INITIAL STRUCTURE WHICH IS NOT TOTALLY FREE OF THE ITCZ. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE DECAY-SHIPS MODEL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/3. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTH-NORTHWEST SOON DUE TO A DEEPENING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER MEXICO. THE BULK OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST IS JUST A BIT WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF MEXICO. THIS WARNING MIGHT HAVE TO BE EXTENDED WESTWARD LATER TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 15.7N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.0N 101.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 16.8N 101.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.7N 101.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 18.7N 102.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-09-13 16:59:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 131459 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 AM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN SIZE...BUT IT HAS NOT CHANGED VERY MUCH IN ORGANIZATION. A RECONNAISSANCE PLANE...HOWEVER...REPORTED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 45 KNOTS WHEN IT DEPARTED THE CYCLONE...ALONG WITH BIAS-CORRECTED SFMR WINDS OF 42 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 40 KNOTS...AND A NAME HAS BEEN ASSIGNED TO THE SYSTEM. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE IS QUITE LOW...AND THERE IS A WELL-ESTABLISHED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. ASSUMING THAT THE SHEAR DECREASES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO...THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH THE NHC 48-HOUR FORECAST CALLS FOR 55 KT...INGRID COULD BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THAT AT LANDFALL. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE BIT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS. AS ANTICIPATED...THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN DRIFTING WESTWARD OR MOVING ERRATICALLY. AS SOON AS THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER TEXAS...AND WHICH HAS THE CYCLONE TRAPPED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE... SHIFTS EASTWARD...INGRID WILL BEGIN TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD VERY NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE HWRF MOVES THE CYCLONE INLAND IN ABOUT A DAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...KEEPING THE CYCLONE OVER WATER LONGER. EVENTUALLY...ALL MODELS TURN THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO AND BRING THE CYCLONE INLAND BETWEN 2 AND 3 DAYS. IT MUST BE EMPHASIZED THAT THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS CYCLONE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 19.4N 95.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 19.5N 95.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 20.5N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 21.3N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.0N 97.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 23.0N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 17/1200Z 23.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 20

2013-09-13 16:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 131450 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 VERTICAL SHEAR IS TAKING ITS TOLL ON HUMBERTO. ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SHEARED AWAY FROM THE CIRCULATION...LEAVING AN EXPOSED CENTER WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE MESOVORTICES. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 55 KT...BASICALLY AS FAST AS THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS ALLOW. FURTHER WEAKENING SEEMS PROBABLE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MARGINAL SSTS. IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH WHILE HUMBERTO MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS...WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME RESTRENGTHENING. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE STORM WILL UNDERGO A TROUGH INTERACTION IN THE LONG RANGE...LEAVING IT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TO BECOME EVEN STRONGER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS AND THE RATHER STRONG SHEAR FORECAST. AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT IS STILL BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/9. A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK OF HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC. THE STORM SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY DAYS 4-5 WHILE IT RECURVES AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS HOW FAST THE STORM ACCELERATES INTO THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN...WHICH DEPENDS ON WHAT PARTICULAR SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES THE NEXT MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE NEW NHC PREDICTION WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...NEAR THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 24.7N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 25.4N 32.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 26.3N 35.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 27.4N 37.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 28.5N 39.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 30.7N 42.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 32.8N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 36.5N 44.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 21

2013-09-13 16:40:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 131440 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 AMBIGUITIES FROM AN 0200 UTC ASCAT PASS SUGGEST THAT THERE ARE VERY LITTLE...IF ANY...NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. GABRIELLE HAS ACCELERATED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST SINCE THAT TIME...REDUCING THE LIKELIHOOD THAT NORTH WINDS ARE PRESENT. HOWEVER...A LARGE BURST OF CONVECTION DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS AT LEAST MAKES IT PLAUSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION REMAINS CLOSED...AND SO GABRIELLE IS BEING HELD AS A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOR THIS ADVISORY. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE MAXIMUM WINDS IS POSSIBLE TODAY DUE TO BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. THE FORWARD SPEED OF GABRIELLE HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 020/20. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST WHILE IT INTERACTS WITH A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT GABRIELLE WILL OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH LATER TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS A 12-HOUR FORECAST POINT. AFTER THAT...GABRIELLE OR ITS REMNANTS SHOULD GET ABSORBED BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 39.1N 66.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 43.2N 64.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN/ZELINSKY

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Tropical Depression GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 20

2013-09-13 10:51:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130851 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 500 AM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS INCREASED TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER OF GABRIELLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IT LACKS BANDING FEATURES. AN ASCAT OVERPASS AROUND 0200 UTC SHOWED MAXIMUM WINDS IN THE 25 TO 30 KT RANGE...AND ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 30 KT OR LOWER. BASED ON THESE DATA...GABRIELLE IS ONCE AGAIN DOWNGRADED TO A 30-KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION. GABRIELLE IS MOVING A LITTLE FASTER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...WITH THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE BEING 015/15. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST LATER TODAY WHEN IT BECOMES MORE EMBEDDED IN THE STRONG FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND CANADA. GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH IN 12 TO 24 HOURS BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION OCCURRING EVEN SOONER THAN FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 36.5N 67.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 40.5N 65.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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