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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-09-14 10:56:25| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140856 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 14 2013 GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE AND MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL IS ORGANIZING. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND A LARGE CURVED BAND TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. ALTHOUGH MANUEL APPEARS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN IT WAS EARLIER...ALL OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED... SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KT. MANUEL HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SPREAD EXISTS IN THE MODELS...THE OVERALL THEME IS THAT MANUEL...AND THE LARGE-SCALE GYRE THAT IT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN...WILL BEGIN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY. THAT GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST UNTIL THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST THIS CYCLE...AND THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION. STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL MANUEL MAKES LANDFALL DUE TO GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND THE CURRENT STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL AND LIES CLOSE TO THE LGEM GUIDANCE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SUGGESTS THAT MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH BY THE TIME IT MAKES LANDFALL. IN ADDITION TO THE WIND THREAT...THE MOIST FLOW RESULTING FROM THE COMBINATION OF MANUEL AND TROPICAL STORM INGRID IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO. THIS WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 15.3N 102.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.0N 102.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 17.1N 103.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 18.3N 103.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR THE COAST 48H 16/0600Z 19.3N 104.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 23

2013-09-14 10:50:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140850 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 500 AM AST SAT SEP 14 2013 HUMBERTO IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF TIME...AND IF CONVECTION DOES NOT RETURN SOON IT WILL LIKELY BE DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY. EVEN THOUGH HUMBERTO LACKS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...IT CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IT IS LIKELY STILL PRODUCING WINDS OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET AT 35 KT...ASSUMING A SPIN DOWN FROM THE EARLIER ASCAT DATA. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND DRY STABLE AIR ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING HUMBERTO FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY REMAIN A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME MORE FAVORABLE BY MONDAY...AND ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS SHOW HUMBERTO GAINING STRENGTH IN THE 3 TO 5 DAY TIME FRAME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE GUIDANCE AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. SOME OF THE EXPECTED INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A FAVORABLE TROUGH INTERACTION. THE STORM IS ON A WESTWARD PATH...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/8. A CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE THE SYSTEM REMAINS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT IS FORECAST WHEN THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE. HUMBERTO...OR ITS REMNANT LOW...IS EXPECTED TO RECURVE IN ABOUT 4 DAYS WHEN IT BECOMES EMBEDDED IN SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AN APPROACHING TROUGH. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS AGREE ON THIS OVERALL SCENARIO...THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE RECURVATURE STAGE...WITH THE GFS BEING THE FASTEST AND THE ECMWF THE SLOWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BETWEEN THOSE MODELS AND LIES VERY NEAR THE CONSENSUS AIDS...TVCA AND TV15. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 25.0N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.3N 35.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 15/0600Z 26.2N 38.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1800Z 27.2N 40.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0600Z 28.1N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0600Z 30.5N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 33.0N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 37.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Storm INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-09-14 04:57:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 140257 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 1000 PM CDT FRI SEP 13 2013 AFTER STRENGTHENING EARLIER...THE INTENSITY OF INGRID APPEARS TO HAVE LEVELED OFF. THE LAST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT BEFORE 00Z WAS 993 MB...AND THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT GOTTEN TOO MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED...LIKELY DUE TO MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUING OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 50 KT BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA...AND ANOTHER AIRCRAFT WILL BE FLYING INTO INGRID OVERNIGHT. THE OBSERVED SHEAR HAS NOT BEEN AN IMPEDIMENT TO STEADY STRENGTHENING...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN IMPROVING UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS BOTH SHOW STEADY INTENSIFICATION TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...AND SO DOES THE NHC FORECAST. AFTER LANDFALL... INGRID SHOULD QUICKLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BY 96 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. AIRCRAFT AND SATELLITE FIXES SHOW LITTLE NET MOTION OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. AS THE BLOCKING RIDGE TO THE NORTH MOVES EASTWARD...A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION SHOULD BEGIN BY EARLY SATURDAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY. WHILE MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS GENERAL TREND...THERE REMAINS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE TIMING AND SHARPNESS OF THE WESTWARD TURN. THE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE WITH A WIDER TURN WHILE THE HWRF HAS ONE OF THE TRACKS FARTHEST TO THE LEFT. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS NEAR THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND THE ECMWF. IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT THE EXACT TIMING AND LOCATION OF LANDFALL IN THE HURRICANE WATCH AREA REMAINS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASED WIND THREAT...THE COMBINATION OF THE MOIST FLOW FROM BOTH INGRID AND TROPICAL STORM MANUEL IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS...AND LIFE- THREATENING FLOODING OVER EASTERN MEXICO WILL REMAIN A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 19.3N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 20.0N 95.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 21.1N 95.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 21.9N 96.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 22.3N 97.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 22.4N 99.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 96H 18/0000Z 22.0N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN

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Tropical Storm HUMBERTO Forecast Discussion Number 22

2013-09-14 04:56:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTNT44 KNHC 140256 TCDAT4 TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092013 1100 PM AST FRI SEP 13 2013 ALTHOUGH HUMBERTO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 10 HOURS...A 13/2307Z ASCAT-B OVERPASS INDICATED WINDS OF 37-38 KT NORTH OF THE CENTER...WHILE MISSING THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE WHERE STRONGER WINDS COULD HAVE BEEN PRESENT. THEREFORE THE INTENSITY IS ONLY LOWERED TO 40 KT AND THE SYSTEM IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR ONE MORE ADVISORY CYCLE. HOWEVER...INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 40 KT ALONG WITH SUB-26C SSTS SHOULD COMBINE TO CAUSE HUMBERTO TO DEGENERATE INTO A NON-CONVECTIVE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS. HUMBERTO IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN A REMNANT LOW FOR ABOUT 60-72 HOURS...AT WHICH TIME THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE SHARPLY WHILE THE SYSTEM IS MOVING OVER 28C SSTS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR REGENERATION BACK INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 3...WITH HUMBERTO POSSIBLY REGAINING HURRICANE STRENGTH BY DAY 5. THE INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL MODELS AND THE TREND OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY AT DAYS 3-5. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/08 KT. THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST OR SYNOPTIC REASONING. HUMBERTO SHOULD BE STEERED WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD BY A STRONG RIDGE TO ITS NORTH...AND THEN GRADUALLY RECURVE INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BY DAYS 3/4 AS A STRONG MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 24.8N 33.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 25.4N 34.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 15/0000Z 26.3N 37.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 15/1200Z 27.2N 39.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 16/0000Z 28.2N 41.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 17/0000Z 30.3N 43.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 32.6N 45.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 36.5N 43.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-09-14 04:49:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 140249 TCDEP3 TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 13 2013 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. BANDING FEATURES HAVE IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT TO THE NORTHWEST...AND RECENT PASSIVE MICROWAVE IMAGES HAVE REVEALED A SMALL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYELIKE FEATURE. FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ALONG WITH ADT ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 35 KT. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 40 KT BASED ON THE 15-20 NMI DIAMETER EYELIKE FEATURE. THE 34-KT WIND RADII WERE EXPANDED...ESPECIALLY TO THE NORTHEAST...BASED ON WIND REPORTS FROM SHIP DFZB2. IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN AND IS NOW NEARLY STATIONARY. MANUEL IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER SYNOPTIC-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...WHICH INCLUDES TROPICAL STORM INGRID LOCATED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MOST OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING THE ENTIRE GYRE COMPLEX TO SHIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN MANUEL GRADUALLY ASSUMING A NORTHWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION BEGINNING EARLY SATURDAY AND CONTINUING UNTIL LANDFALL IN 36-48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND LIES TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION...MANUEL HAS A SMALL RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT TRMM AND SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATING AN EYELIKE FEATURE. SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT AFTER 18-24 HOURS...MANUEL HAS A GOOD CHANCE TO INTENSIFY...AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A LITTLE ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL ICON. HOWEVER...IF INNER-CORE DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPS SOONER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...THEN MANUEL COULD BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH WHEN IT MAKES LANDFALL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 15.3N 102.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.0N 102.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.0N 102.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.1N 103.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 19.1N 103.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion manuel storm

 

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