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Tropical Storm FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-26 01:31:23| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 252331 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 600 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX THIS LATE AFTERNOON FOUND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS AND SFMR SURFACE WINDS THAT SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF AT LEAST 40 KT...WHICH CORRELATES WELL WITH THE MEASURED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1003 MB. AS A RESULT...THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM FERNAND. THE OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING RIGHT UP UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND THIS IS INDICATED IN THE UPDATED OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THE INITIAL LOCATION WAS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD BY ABOUT 30 NMI BASED ON THE RECON FLIGHT-LEVEL DATA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 280/08 KT...BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. OTHER THAN A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT IN THE FORECAST TRACK...PRIMARILY DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHWARD INITIAL POSITION...THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK REASONING. A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SOME DECREASE IN THE FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE IN ABOUT 12-18 HOURS. THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED IN LIEU OF THE SCHEDULED INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2300Z 19.2N 95.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.5N 96.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 24H 26/1800Z 20.1N 97.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 20.9N 99.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression SIX Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-25 22:38:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 252038 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 ANIMATION OF HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...RADAR OBSERVATIONS FROM ALVARADO MEXICO...AND SURFACE SYNOPTIC DATA FROM VERACRUZ AND CAOATZACOALCOS MEXICO INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CIRCULATION TO BE DESIGNATED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 30 KT IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM TAFB. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS DELAYED DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUES...BUT IS NOW EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE CYCLONE TO GET A BETTER ESTIMATE OF THE INTENSITY. THERE IS A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION AND STRENGTHENING TO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE CENTER CROSSES THE COAST. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTERWARDS AS THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD DISSIPATE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS...OR SOONER. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER LOCATION...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE...270/10....IS ALSO SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT A MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WILL CAUSE A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE GUIDANCE DOES SHOW SOME SLOWING OF FORWARD SPEED BUT IT IS STILL LIKELY THAT THE CENTER WILL REACH THE COASTLINE WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NOT FAR FROM THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.9N 96.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.4N 97.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 48H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Post-Tropical Cyclone IVO Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-08-25 22:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252034 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 IVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND IVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 13
2013-08-25 16:35:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 251435 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 COOL WATER AND STABLE AIR ARE TAKING A TOLL ON IVO...AS THE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING THIS MORNING. NEARLY ALL OF THE REMAINING COLD CLOUD TOPS ARE NOW LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY A RECENT SHIP OBSERVATION AND EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. IVO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IVO SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/8 KT. IVO IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO DRIFT GENERALLY SOUTHWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW ALONG THE COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM IVO CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 25.1N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 26.1N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1200Z 26.7N 115.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0000Z 26.7N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-08-25 10:32:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250832 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 DESPITE BEING OVER WATERS COLDER THAN 24C...IVO HAS BEEN PRODUCING A BAND OF DEEP CONVECTION NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF ITS CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT BASED ON A RECENT ASCAT PASS... WHICH STILL SHOWED LARGE AREAS OF 25- TO 30-KT WINDS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION SHOULD CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN AS IVO MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE DEPRESSION DEGENERATING TO A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY 72 HOURS. IVO HAS PICKED UP A LITTLE BIT OF SPEED AND IS MOVING 335/9 KT...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS OR SO. LOW-LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW DOWN THE PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CAUSE THE REMNANT LOW TO STALL IN ABOUT 36 HOURS AND THEN DRIFT SOUTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. MOISTURE FROM IVO IS SPREADING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 24.4N 114.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 25.7N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 26.8N 115.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1800Z 27.1N 116.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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