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Tropical Depression IVO Forecast Discussion Number 11

2013-08-25 04:31:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 250231 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER WATERS. THERE ARE STILL A FEW PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS IN BANDS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. SATELLITE ESTIMATES SUPPORT LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER EVEN COOLER WATERS AND THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL CENTERS BECOME DECOUPLED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THIS MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS UNTIL IVO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CYCLONE. BY THEN... IVO WILL PROBABLY BEGIN TO MEANDER IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW. MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0300Z 23.5N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1200Z 24.6N 115.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 26/0000Z 25.8N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 26/1200Z 26.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/0000Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 

Tropical Storm IVO Forecast Discussion Number 10

2013-08-24 22:32:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 242032 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IVO HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE REMAINING ORGANIZED CONVECTION NOW IN THIN BANDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS AND THE CONTINUED MOTION OVER COLDER WATER...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 35 KT. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THERE ARE STILL MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS PRESENT...WHICH CONTINUES TO COMPLICATE THE CENTER FINDING. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 335/10. IVO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE SYSTEM SHEARS APART IN 24-36 HR. AFTER THAT...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER SHOULD STALL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WHILE THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL REMNANTS CONTINUE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. EVEN THOUGH IVO IS WEAKENING...MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 22.9N 114.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 24.2N 114.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 25.6N 115.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 26.5N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1800Z 26.8N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1800Z 27.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm IVO Forecast Discussion Number 9

2013-08-24 16:47:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 241447 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 24 2013 EVEN WITH THE HELP OF MICROWAVE DATA...THE CENTER OF IVO HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS MORNING. OSCAT SCATTEROMETER DATA DURING THE NIGHT INDICATED THAT THE CENTER WAS ELONGATED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...AND A RECENT SSM/I OVERPASS SUGGESTED THAT MULTIPLE LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS WERE PRESENT. FIRST LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SUPPORTS A CENTER WEST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...NEAR THE NORTHERNMOST OF THE TWO MAIN CONVECTIVE MASSES. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO ANY OF THE INTENSITY ESTIMATES...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 340/10. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE CENTER POSITION AND INITIAL MOTION. IVO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ON THE WEST SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE NOW IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SHEAR APART IN 24-48 HR...WITH THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL PORTION CONTINUING NORTHWARD AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO...AND IT IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSITION. IVO SHOULD START WEAKENING WITHIN 12-24 HOURS AS IT MOVES OVER THE COLDER WATER WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 96 HR. RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS SPREADING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES...AND CAUSE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 22.5N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0000Z 23.8N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/1200Z 25.4N 115.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 26/0000Z 26.6N 115.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/1200Z 27.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/1200Z 27.5N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm IVO Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-08-24 04:31:55| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 240231 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...AND IVO STILL CONSISTS OF A LARGE CIRCULATION DEVOID OF AN INNER CORE. IN FACT...THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION OR THE AREA OF MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS BEEN PIVOTING WITHIN A LARGER CYCLONIC GYRE. IN ADDITION...THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY DIMINISHING...AND THERE IS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NEAR THE ESTIMATED CENTER. ALTHOUGH THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES SUGGEST LOWER WINDS...EARLIER ASCAT DATA AS WELL AS SHIP REPORTS SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE STILL 40 KNOTS. THESE STRONG WINDS ARE WELL REMOVED FROM THE CENTER. IVO HAS A SMALL OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY BEFORE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SOONER. SINCE THE CENTER HAS BEEN REFORMING WITHIN THE LARGE GYRE...THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. IT APPEARS...HOWEVER...THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS...A LITTLE FASTER THAN EARLIER TODAY. IVO CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS HEADING TOWARD A WEAKNESS INDUCED BY AN AMPLIFYING TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER IVO NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...BECOMES SHALLOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO MEANDER WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN ABOUT 3 TO 4 DAYS. MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...THE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE IS QUITE LARGE WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING A NORTHWARD TRACK AND OTHERS A TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE LATTER SCENARIO...WHICH INCLUDE THE ECMWF...IS PROBABLY THE RESULT OF THE MODELS ASSUMING IVO TO BE A MUCH WEAKER AND SHALLOW CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 20.7N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 22.1N 112.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 23.8N 113.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 25.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 26.5N 114.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 28/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm IVO Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-08-23 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 232037 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND ASCAT DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF IVO HAS REFORMED TO THE NORTHEAST DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE ASCAT DATA ALSO SHOW THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 KT...AND THESE WINDS ARE MAINLY IN AN AREA ABOUT 150 N MI FROM THE CENTER OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE REFORMATION MAKES THE INITIAL MOTION VERY UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 360/5. IVO REMAINS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT... THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS...HWRF...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IVO TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NAVGEM SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES...SHOWING A CONTINUED SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THE TRACK FORECAST STILL FOLLOWS THE ECMWF/UKMET SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS OF IVO TO STALL WEST OF BAJA AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE REFORMED CENTER. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL IVO REACHES COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO IT. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK AND THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 19.5N 111.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 20.6N 112.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 22.6N 112.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 24.4N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 26.1N 114.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1800Z 28.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1800Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

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