Home › discussion
 

Keywords :   


Tag: discussion

Remnants of FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-08-26 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 262043 TCDAT1 REMNANTS OF FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.6N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number discussion forecast remnants

 

Tropical Depression FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-08-26 16:37:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 261437 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 1000 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW THAT FERNAND CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER EASTERN MEXICO. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS STILL PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...WIND OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE INTERACTION WITH LAND...AND FERNAND HAS WEAKENED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AS THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER INLAND...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AND DISSIPATE IN A DAY OR SO...IF NOT SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE WILL SPREAD INLAND OVER EASTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 20.3N 97.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 20.9N 98.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 21.4N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

 
 

Tropical Storm FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-08-26 10:32:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 260832 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING INLAND. THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-08-26 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 AM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 OBSERVATIONS FROM THE ALVARADO MEXICO RADAR AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS INLAND OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ. WIND SPEED OBSERVATIONS FROM LA MANCHA BEACH...NOT FAR TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...SUGGEST THAT SOME WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE...AND THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CIRCULATION INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASS OF MEXICO. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A DEPRESSION IN 12 HOURS OR SO...AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT. WHILE IT WAS CROSSING THE COASTLINE...THE CENTER TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AND IT PRACTICALLY PARALLELED THE COAST AFTER MOVING INLAND. THIS MOTION MAY HAVE BEEN IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH NEAR THE TEXAS COAST. SINCE THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FARTHER WEST LATER TODAY...THE STEERING FLOW SHOULD BE DOMINATED BY A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH FERNAND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...VERY HEAVY RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO THROUGH TONIGHT. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 19.8N 96.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 12H 26/1800Z 20.4N 98.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/0600Z 21.1N 99.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 21.5N 100.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-08-26 04:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 260233 TCDAT1 TROPICAL STORM FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 1000 PM CDT SUN AUG 25 2013 AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 52 KT ON ITS OUTBOUND LEG IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT...AND MEXICAN COASTAL OBSERVING STATIONS SACV4 AND VERV4 IN VERACRUZ HARBOR HAVE REPORTED 10-METER SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KT AND 44 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT AND 63 KT...RESPECTIVELY...DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. BASED ON THAT WIND DATA...THE INTENSITY OF FERNAND HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 45 KT...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING UNTIL FERNAND MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ IN A FEW HOURS...WHICH MAY BE ONGOING BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE REPORTS AND A RECENT BURST OF STRONG CONVECTION CONTAINING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUD TOPS COLDER THAN -80C IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 280/08 KT...AND IS BASED MAINLY ON MODEL GUIDANCE. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FERNAND SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING GENERALLY WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...AFTER WHICH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST COULD OCCUR AS THE REMNANT LOW MOVES PARALLEL TO RATHER THAN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...FERNAND SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE VERACRUZ METROPOLITAN AREA TONIGHT AND BE INLAND BY 0600 UTC. HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND ADJACENT AREAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH FERNAND. THESE RAINS COULD TRIGGER SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0300Z 19.3N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 26/1200Z 19.7N 97.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 24H 27/0000Z 20.3N 98.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND 36H 27/1200Z 21.0N 99.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...DISSIPATING INLAND 48H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Sites : [1224] [1225] [1226] [1227] [1228] [1229] [1230] [1231] [1232] [1233] [1234] [1235] [1236] [1237] [1238] [1239] [1240] [1241] [1242] [1243] next »