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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-09-01 16:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 011434 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 A TRMM MICROWAVE OVERPASS AT 1122Z INDICATED THAT KIKO POSSESSED A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL EYE...BUT THERE WAS NO CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE BENEATH IT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM A CIRA AMSU ESTIMATE OF 42 KT TO AS HIGH AS 72 KT FROM BOTH CIMSS AMSU AND ADT ESTIMATES. ALTHOUGH KIKO COULD HAVE BRIEFLY BEEN A HURRICANE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING MAINTAINED AT 60 KT...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE T3.5/55 KT ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 360/06 KT. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND GRADUALLY SLOW DOWN BEFORE TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHILE THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND MOVES AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM...IT COULD GET TRAPPED AND BECOME STATIONARY IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC GYRE THAT HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT FEATURE ACROSS THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE. KIKO IS STILL OVER SSTS NEAR 27C...BUT IT WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LOW...THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD ALSO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 72 HOURS WHEN THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE AFTER THE SYSTEM LOSES MOST...IF NOT ALL...OF ITS CONVECTION OVER 23-24C SSTS BY THAT TIME. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AS WELL AS THE SHIPS AND LGEM STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL INTENSITY MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 21.3N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 21.9N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 22.6N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 23.1N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 23.4N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 23.8N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-09-01 10:37:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010837 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF KIKO SEEMS TO HAVE HALTED TONIGHT. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL STORM HAS A TIGHT INNER CORE...BUT THE CDO HAS BECOME SOMEWHAT LESS SYMMETRIC WITH THE CENTER NOW CLOSER TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS MAY BE THE RESULT OF SOME SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEER OVER THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 60 KT...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT ASCAT DATA. KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND SHOULD CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 24 HOURS. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY VERY SOON AND COULD STILL BECOME HURRICANE THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH THAT IS NO LONGER EXPLICITLY INDICATED IN THE UPDATED FOREAST. COOLER SSTS AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE A STEADY WEAKENING TREND TO BEGIN BY TONIGHT. KIKO IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 010/6 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AROUND THE EASTERN PORTION OF A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY IN THE LIGHTER LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS KIKO GAINING MORE LATITUDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SLOWING DOWN. AS A RESULT...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...THE UPDATED TRACK IS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 20.6N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 21.4N 115.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 22.2N 115.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 22.8N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 23.1N 116.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 23.5N 116.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-09-01 04:40:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 010240 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 KIKO IS CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE. MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE STORM HAS AN INNER CORE...AND EVEN THE LAST FEW VISIBLE IMAGES SUGGESTED A WEAK EYE FEATURE WITHIN A MORE SYMMETRICAL CDO. THE INTENSITY IS SET TO 60 KT...A BIT HIGHER THAN THE LATEST SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS...WHICH HAVE HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING UP WITH THIS CYCLONE. THE PACE OF STRENGTHENING SHOULD DIMINISH SOON AS KIKO IS MOVING ACROSS COOLING WATERS...AND WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN 12-24H. AFTER THAT TIME...A MORE STEADY DECREASE IN STRENGTH SEEMS PROBABLE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER WATERS...AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR ALOFT. THE LATEST NHC PREDICTION IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS...AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...CONSISTENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. KIKO HAS BEEN SURPRISINGLY MOVING A BIT EAST OF NORTH DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...010/6. IT APPEARS TO BE ROTATING AROUND THE EAST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS TAKEN A NOTABLE SHIFT TO THE EAST...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS SHIFTED EASTWARD BY 30-45 NMI AT MOST TIME PERIODS ON THIS PACKAGE. IN 36-48H...THE CYCLONE WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE VERTICALLY...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0300Z 20.0N 115.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 01/1200Z 20.8N 115.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 02/0000Z 21.6N 116.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/1200Z 22.2N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 03/0000Z 22.3N 116.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 04/0000Z 22.2N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE

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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-08-31 22:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 312044 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 SURPRISINGLY...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED THIS AFTERNOON AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM KIKO. A RAGGED EYE HAS INTERMITTENTLY APPEARED IN THE CENTER OF A SMALL CDO IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY...WHILE MICROWAVE IMAGERY FROM A 1714Z METOP-A AMSU PASS ALSO SHOWED A BANDING EYE DEVELOPING. HOWEVER...THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 1800Z CAME IN QUITE LOW WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF NEAR 35 KT. EVEN THE ADT ONLY SUGGESTED ABOUT 45 KT...AS THE EYE IS NOT YET DISTINCT IN THE INFRARED IMAGERY. BASED UPON THE RAPID RECENT DEVELOPMENT OBSERVED IN THE IMAGERY...THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KT WITH A LARGER THAN USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THE RAGGED EYE ALLOWS FOR A RATHER CONFIDENT ASSESSMENT OF THE MOTION OF THE STORM AT 335/4. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE AT THIS SLOW FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT DAY AND A HALF OR SO...PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...IT MAY NEARLY STALL AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO A SHIFT IN THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UNEXPECTED RAPID INTENSIFICATION MAY BE ASCRIBED TO THE LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM AND MOIST CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY EMBEDDED IN. HOWEVER...NONE OF OUR STATISTICAL NOR DYNAMICAL MODELS HAD A CLUE THAT THE SYSTEM WOULD INTENSIFY AS MUCH AS IT DID. GIVEN THE CURRENT TRENDS...ITS INTENSITY IS PREDICTED TO PEAK AS A HIGH END TROPICAL STORM...BUT EVEN A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE IS NOT UNREALISTIC. COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF...AND WEAKENING SHOULD COMMENCE THEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE ALL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE MUCH STRONGER INITIAL CONDITIONS. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/2100Z 19.3N 116.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 01/0600Z 20.1N 116.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 01/1800Z 21.0N 116.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 02/0600Z 21.7N 116.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 02/1800Z 22.1N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/1800Z 22.3N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-08-31 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 311454 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY OVERNIGHT WAS AMBIGUOUS ON THE EXACT POSITION OF THE CYCLONE. FORTUNATELY...A 0938Z NOAA-19 AMSU AND A 1217Z TRMM MICROWAVE PASSES WERE HELPFUL IN MORE ACCURATELY LOCATING ITS CENTER. THESE INDICATE A MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM OF 325/6... PRIMARILY DUE TO STEERING PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. AS THE CYCLONE WINDS DOWN IN ABOUT TWO TO THREE DAYS...IT WILL SLOW ITS FORWARD SPEED AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT MORE WESTWARD INITIAL POSITION AND IS CLOSE TO THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY REMAINS AT 30 KT...IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TAFB...SAB...AND ADT SATELLITE-BASED INTENSITY ESTIMATES. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT SINCE THE 1200Z ESTIMATES AND THE SYSTEM COULD BE REACHING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY SHORTLY. HOWEVER...INTENSIFICATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL LIKELY BE QUITE SHORT-LIVED...AS COOLER SSTS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE LIE ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH OF THE SYSTEM STARTING IN ABOUT A DAY AND A HALF. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS UNANIMOUS IN NOT BRINGING THE CYCLONE HIGHER THAN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM. THE INTENSITY PREDICTION MIRRORS THIS AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT THREE DAYS AND DISSIPATE IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS...WHILE REMAINING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/1500Z 19.1N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/0000Z 19.8N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/1200Z 20.6N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 02/0000Z 21.5N 117.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/1200Z 21.9N 117.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/1200Z 22.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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