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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 2
2013-08-31 10:34:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310833 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 31 2013 A 0407 UTC TRMM PASS SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY. THIS STRUCTURE IS CONSISTENT WITH THE 10-15 KT OF NORTHERLY SHEAR ANALYZED OVER THE CYCLONE BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST TAFB DVORAK CLASSIFICATION AND A 0445Z ASCAT-A PASS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ONLY A DAY OR SO TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT BEGINS TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS. HOWEVER...A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW LOCATED OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPART MODERATE SHEAR ON THE CYCLONE DURING THAT TIME...WHICH SUGGESTS ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED DOWNWARD THIS CYCLE...WITH ONLY THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWING THE DEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED DOWNWARD BUT STILL REMAINS ABOVE MOST OF THE GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4 AND DISSIPATE BY DAY 5...BUT THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 330/07. THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER- LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD MOTION OF THE DEPRESSION DURING THAT TIME. THEN AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...MOST OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH BY DAY 4 AS THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE TVCE MULTI- MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0900Z 18.8N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1800Z 19.5N 116.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0600Z 20.2N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1800Z 20.9N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 02/0600Z 21.3N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 03/0600Z 21.3N 117.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0600Z 20.9N 117.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E Forecast Discussion Number 1
2013-08-31 04:58:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 310258 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT FRI AUG 30 2013 A SMALL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMED WITHIN THE LARGE ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ASCAT DATA SUGGESTED THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE ABOUT 30 KT...AND THAT WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WHILE THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY HAS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR STRENGTHENING....IT WILL REACH COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. IN ADDITION...A LARGE MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE AN INCREASE IN SHEAR WITHIN A DAY OR TWO. MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT VERY EXCITED AT ALL ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING...WITH THE HIGHEST RELIABLE MODEL SUGGESTING A PEAK INTENSITY OF ONLY 46 KT. GIVEN THE TIME OF THE YEAR...THE NHC FORECAST WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE MODEL CONSENSUS...AND NOT TOO FAR FROM A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM. BEST GUESS OF INITIAL MOTION IS 330/6. THE LOW NEAR BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD CAUSE A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC... WHICH WILL LIKELY TURN THE SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION NORTHWARD IN A DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT TIME...THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD...OR TURN BACK SOUTHWARD DUE TO AN ENHANCED ITCZ REDEVELOPING SOUTH OF MEXICO. GIVEN THAT THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAK AND STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW AT LONG RANGE...THE NHC FORECAST WILL PUT MORE WEIGHT ON THE EQUATORWARD SOLUTIONS. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW DISSIPATION WITHIN 120 HR...AND SO DOES THE NHC PREDICTION BELOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 31/0300Z 18.3N 115.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 31/1200Z 19.1N 116.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 20.7N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 21.3N 116.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 21.5N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 21.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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depression
Post-Tropical Cyclone JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-08-30 04:37:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 300237 TCDEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 800 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 ALL THAT REMAINS OF JULIETTE IS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL SWIRL WITH NO ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. BASED ON THE LACK OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...JULIETTE IS DECLARED A REMNANT LOW AND THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT...AND THIS COULD BE GENEROUS BASED ON A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM EARLIER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER COLD WATERS WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST...AND ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LOSE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITHIN 24-36H. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 26.7N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 30/1200Z 27.6N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 31/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-08-29 22:47:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 292047 TCDEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 30 KT. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JULIETTE HAS DECELERATED AS ANTICIPATED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/14 KT. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED. THE MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/2100Z 26.1N 113.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0600Z 27.2N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1800Z 28.2N 118.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0600Z 28.8N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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discussion
tropical
depression
Arc Flash Hazard: The Root Cause Discussion
2013-08-29 22:34:00| Electrical Construction & Maintenance
Andrew Cochran is the president of I-Gard, a company that for over 30 years continues to provide technical support in the application of ground-fault protection and resistance grounding products read more
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flash
root
arc
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