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Post-Tropical Cyclone KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-09-02 22:37:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 022037 TCDEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 KIKO HAS BEEN DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FOR MORE THAN 12 HOURS AS IT HAS CONTINUED TO INGEST DRIER AND MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR AND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER COOL WATERS THE PAST 6 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE CYCLONE IS BEING DESIGNATED AS A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE LACK OF CONVECTION...SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL QUITE ROBUST...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. NOW THAT KIKO HAS BECOME A SHALLOW VORTEX EMBEDDED IN WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT CONTINUES TO SPIN DOWN OVER 24C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 22.9N 116.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 03/0600Z 22.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1800Z 22.8N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0600Z 22.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-09-02 16:35:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 021435 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 KIKO HAS ONLY BEEN DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION SINCE ABOUT 0700 UTC AND SOME SHALLOW CONVECTION IS STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE CENTER AND IN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT. AS A RESULT...KIKO IS BEING MAINTAINED AS A 30-KT DEPRESSION...WHICH IS CONSISTENT WITH AN AVERAGE OF ALL AVAILABLE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER- AND LOWER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS OF THE CYCLONE HAVE NOW DECOUPLED...SO KIKO SHOULD GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED BY 48 HOURS...BUT IT COULD OCCUR SOONER THAN THAT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 325/02 KT. AS INDICATED IN PREVIOUS ADVISORIES...KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BASICALLY MEANDER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA WITHIN A REGION OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS UNTIL IT DISSIPATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 22.9N 116.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 23.2N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/1200Z 23.5N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 04/0000Z 23.7N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 10
2013-09-02 10:42:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020842 TCDEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 02 2013 THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO DISSIPATED OVERNIGHT...AND THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO QUICKLY FALL...AND A BLEND OF THE LATEST T- AND CI-NUMBERS SUGGEST AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SPIN DOWN AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW AS IT MOVES OVER COOL WATERS AND IN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. DISSIPATION OF THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR TWO...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE. NIGHTIME VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT KIKO HAS SLOWED DOWN WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 335/4 KT. THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN TODAY AS IT BECOMES SITUATED IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 22.7N 116.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 9
2013-09-02 04:35:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 020235 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH KIKO IS FADING...AND DVORAK DATA T-NUMBERS ARE COMING DOWN FAST. OUT OF RESPECT FOR THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA AND THE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY RULE...THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET...PERHAPS GENEROUSLY...AT 45 KT. KIKO IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. THESE FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE CONTINUED WEAKENING...AND THE SYSTEM WILL PROBABLY BECOME A DEPRESSION WITHIN 24 HOURS AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS...OR SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT FAR FROM THE MODEL CONSENSUS OR THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LAST-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM HAS ALREADY TURNED TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 340/5. A WEAK MID- TO LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WITH THE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW CYCLONE IN A DAY OR SO...THE FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY TO SLOW TO A CRAWL WITHIN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING CURRENTS TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS AND JUST A TAD TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 22.5N 116.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 23.1N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 23.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 23.9N 116.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 24.1N 116.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 24.2N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Tropical Storm KIKO Forecast Discussion Number 8
2013-09-01 22:35:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 012034 TCDEP1 TROPICAL STORM KIKO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112013 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 01 2013 SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF KIKO HAS DEGRADED SIGNIFICANTLY. DEEP CONVECTION...WHAT LITTLE THERE IS THAT REMAINS...IS LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. NEVERTHELESS... KIKO REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL STORM BASED ON A 47-KT SCATTEROMETER WIND REPORT FROM A 1653 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS. AS A RESULT OF THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY BEING DECREASED TO 50 KT ON THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 350/05 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. KIKO IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND GRADUALLY SLOW AND TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. AS KIKO WEAKENS AND BECOMES A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...THE CYCLONE COULD BECOME STATIONARY AS A REMNANT LOW ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK...AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. KIKO IS BEGINNING TO MOVE ACROSS A TIGHT SST GRADIENT AND WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C OCEAN TEMPERATURES SHORTLY. IN ADDITION... SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CYCLONE HAS STARTED TO INGEST COOLER AND MORE STABLE AIR LOCATED TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE TWO UNFAVORABLE PARAMETERS IS EXPECTED TO HASTEN THE WEAKENING OF KIKO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND RESULT IN A NON-CONVECTIVE REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... AND FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS... WHICH ARE FORECASTING DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM IN 48 AND 96 HOURS...RESPECTIVELY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 21.8N 115.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 22.5N 115.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 23.1N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 23.5N 116.2W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 23.7N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 04/1800Z 24.0N 116.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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