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Tropical Storm IVO Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-08-23 16:38:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 231437 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 CONVECTION HAS INCREASED NEAR THE CENTER OF THE CYCLONE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH FIRST-LIGHT VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWING THE CENTER NOW EMBEDDED IN THE CONVECTIVE OVERCAST. ASCAT DATA LAST NIGHT SHOWED SOME 35 KT VECTORS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA AND THE INCREASED ORGANIZATION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE SCATTEROMETER DATA SHOWED THAT IVO HAS SOME CHARACTERISTICS OF MONSOON CYCLONES OF THE EASTERN HEMISPHERE...INCLUDING A VERY LARGE AREA OF 20-30 KT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED...WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTER TO JUST NORTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND. MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE CENTER IS A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 360/4. IVO IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO...AND IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD AN AREA OF SOUTHERLY STEERING FLOW BETWEEN A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH WEST OF CALIFORNIA. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT... THERE IS SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IN THE GUIDANCE. THE GFS...HWRF...NAVGEM... AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST IVO TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE UKMET AND ECMWF MODELS FORECAST THE SYSTEM TO SHEAR APART...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STALLING OVER THE PACIFIC WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE TRACK FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LATTER SCENARIO AND CALLS FOR A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AFTER 48 HR. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL IVO REACHES COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. AFTER THAT...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER THE COLD WATERS WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IVO IS EXPECTED TO SURGE NORTHWARD OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 18.7N 112.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 19.8N 112.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 21.5N 113.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 23.3N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 25.1N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/1200Z 27.0N 115.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/1200Z 28.0N 116.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-08-23 10:39:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 230838 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013 THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF WHICH IS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OTHER CONVECTIVE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO... DESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD PATTERN. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR AND STABLE AIR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SSTS OF AROUND 23C. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST AND BECOME REINFORCED BY A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE STEADILY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF AND UKMET MODELS. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 18.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 21.2N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1800Z 22.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 25/0600Z 24.5N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0600Z 27.0N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-08-22 22:34:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 222034 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS NOT BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THERE IS SOME CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE HELD STEADY AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THERE IS A RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN...SINCE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY IN 48 HOURS OR LESS. THE NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS...AND JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...330/5...CONTINUES. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST OR REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL ANTICYLONE...AND TOWARD A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CAUSED BY A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE GFS IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER EAST AND THE ECMWF IS FARTHER WEST...AND SLOWER. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 17.7N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 21.1N 113.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 22.7N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 25.5N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1800Z 27.5N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH

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Tropical Depression NINE-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-08-22 16:50:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 221450 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 22 2013 DEEP CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED ABOUT SIX HOURS AGO NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CABO SAN LUCAS...AND IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF ORGANIZING INTO A BAND THAT WRAPS AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THE LOW IS STILL SOMEWHAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ...BUT IT HAS A DISTINCT WELL-DEFINED CENTER. THEREFORE...THE SYSTEM MEETS THE QUALIFICATIONS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 30 KT BASED MAINLY ON EARLIER SCATTEROMETER DATA. THE DEPRESSION HAS A WINDOW OF ABOUT 48 HOURS TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT REACHES SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER WATER AND MORE STABLE AIR TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE COULD ARGUE AGAINST SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION...AND INDEED ALL OF THE INTENSITY MODELS KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A LOW- TO MODERATE-STRENGTH TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 48 HOURS. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN SHORTLY AFTER 48 HOURS DUE TO THE COLDER WATER... STABLE AIR...AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY SHEAR...AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE CYCLONE COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 4. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 330/5 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND IS MOVING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE LOCATED BETWEEN 115W AND 130W. A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OFF THE U.S. WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WHICH WILL KEEP THE BREAK IN THE RIDGE IN PLACE. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FIRST 48 HOURS BUT THEN DIVERGES...WITH SOME MODELS MOVING THE WEAKENING CYCLONE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA COAST AND OTHERS TURNING IT SOUTHWESTWARD. DUE TO THE MODEL SPREAD AND WEAKENING STEERING CURRENTS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS THE REMNANT LOW BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ON DAY 5. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION COULD BEGIN SURGING NORTHWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 5 DAYS...INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 17.5N 111.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 18.0N 112.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 19.2N 112.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 20.5N 113.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 21.9N 114.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 25.0N 116.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 27/1200Z 27.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG

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A discussion Portland needs

2013-08-20 01:35:04| PortlandOnline

The Oregonian Editorial Board, August 19, 2013

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