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Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 4

2013-08-29 16:50:43| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 291450 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 800 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 INTERACTION WITH LAND AND COOLER WATERS ARE TAKING A TOLL ON JULIETTE. THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION HAS DEGRADED...WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY AS IT MOVES OVER COLDER WATERS...AND THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 24 HOURS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SMALL CYCLONE COULD DEGENERATE INTO A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. EITHER WAY...JULIETTE IS NOT EXPECTED TO REMAIN A TROPICAL CYCLONE MUCH LONGER. THE TROPICAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 19 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE IT WEAKENS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS SOLUTION AND LITTLE CHANGE IS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST TRACK. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 25.7N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 27.1N 114.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 28.2N 117.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 29.0N 119.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 3

2013-08-29 10:33:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290833 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 200 AM PDT THU AUG 29 2013 WIND REPORTS IN THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA LATE LAST EVENING INDICATED THAT JULIETTE WAS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED. AN ELEVATED SENSOR AT CABO PULMO MEASURED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 KT AND A GUST TO 72 KT AROUND 0500 UTC...AND ANOTHER ELEVATED STATION FURTHER UP THE WEST COAST AT EL PESCADERO REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 38 KT WITH A GUST TO 60 KT AROUND 0430 UTC. BASED ON AN ADJUSTMENT OF THESE DATA...AND THE FACT THAT JULIETTE HAS BEEN MAINTAINING A HEALTHY CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/19 KT. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED OVER MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD WESTWARD ACROSS CALIFORNIA INTO THE PACIFIC DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN 36 HOURS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A BIT NORTH AND EAST ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS THEREFORE BEEN NUDGED NORTHEASTWARD AND KEEPS THE CENTER OF JULIETTE CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS. JULIETTE HAS BEEN BENEFITTING FROM A SMALL TONGUE OF WARM WATER THAT EXTENDS NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...BUT THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING MUCH COLDER WATER. THE COLD WATER...AS WELL AS CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH LAND...IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN VERY SOON. THE UPDATED INITIAL INTENSITY CAUSED AN UPWARD BUMP IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW KEEPS JULIETTE AS A TROPICAL STORM THROUGH 24 HOURS IN LINE WITH THE ICON INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST AND THE UPDATED INTENSITY FORECAST NOW PUTS MORE OF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AT RISK FOR TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS THEREFORE EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD TO PUNTA EUGENIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 24.4N 111.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 29/1800Z 26.1N 113.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 30/0600Z 27.7N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/1800Z 28.5N 118.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 28.9N 120.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 
 

Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 2

2013-08-29 04:47:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 290247 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 800 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 SATELLITE DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF JULIETTE IS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE ORGANIZATION HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...WITH THE SMALL CENTER NEAR THE NORTH EDGE OF A PERSISTENT CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND A SURFACE OBSERVATION FROM CABO PULMO MEXICO. JULIETTE IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD...315/21...AS IT IS EMBEDDED IN STRONG DEEP-LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...IT SHOULD TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GYRE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AFTER 12 HR...AND IT LIES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS MODELS. A COMBINATION OF LAND INTERACTION AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN 24 HR OR LESS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW OVER COLD WATER IN ABOUT 36 HR AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BETWEEN 48-72 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THIS SMALL CYCLONE WOULD DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST BY DEGENERATING TO AN OPEN TROUGH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0300Z 23.0N 110.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/1200Z 24.7N 111.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 30/0000Z 26.2N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 30/1200Z 27.1N 116.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0000Z 27.6N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Tags: number discussion storm tropical

 

Tropical Storm JULIETTE Forecast Discussion Number 1

2013-08-28 22:13:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 282013 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 200 PM PDT WED AUG 28 2013 A RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS ACQUIRED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION. THE INSTRUMENT MEASURED A SMALL AREA OF 40 KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER...AND THAT IS THE INTENSITY ASSIGNED TO THE CYCLONE. CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS INCREASED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND BASED ON THE SCATTEROMETER DATA...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM. JULIETTE IS A VERY SMALL CYCLONE WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUT ONLY 30 TO 40 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER. THE TROPICAL STORM DOES NOT HAVE MUCH TIME IN WHICH TO STRENGTHEN BEFORE IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA AND REACHES COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AIRMASS WEST OF THE PENINSULA. AS A RESULT...LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH STEADY WEAKENING EXPECTED THERAFTER. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF A LARGE CYCLONIC GYRE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME REDUCTION IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES SHALLOWER...IT SHOULD TURN WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AND DECELERATE EVEN MORE. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/2100Z 21.5N 108.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 23.8N 110.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 25.6N 113.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 26.2N 115.0W 25 KT 30 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 26.8N 117.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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Reid Gardner plant discussion turns to how much consumers should pay

2013-08-27 02:43:46| Semiconductors - Topix.net

Shutting down the coal-fired Reid Gardner power plant in Southern Nevada and getting additional power sources could cost an estimated $1 billion, according to the state Bureau of Consumer Affairs.

Tags: should pay discussion plant

 

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