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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 7

2013-07-06 04:49:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 060249 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ALTHOUGH THE HINT OF AN EYE OBSERVED EARLIER IN CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY IS NOT DISCERNIBLE AT THIS TIME...LATEST MICROWAVE DATA SHOW A WELL DEFINED RING OF CONVECTION WHICH NORMALLY LEADS THE FORMATION OF AN EYE. A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS NOT A HURRICANE YET AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 60 KNOTS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE STRUCTURE OBSERVED ON IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...ERIC COULD BECOME A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME SOON. THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ONLY SUGGESTS A MODEST STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. BEYOND 36 HOURS...A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH COOLER WATERS AND A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN. ERICK IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS AND THIS BASED ON MICROWAVE FIXES. SOME OF THE TRACK MODELS...PRIMARILY THE GFS...HAVE SHIFTED A LITTLE BIT TO THE RIGHT IN THE LAST RUN. IN FACT...THE GFS MADE A BIG CHANGE IN THE 1800 UTC RUN AND NOW HAS ERICK MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR EAST AS INDICATED BY THE GFS...AND IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THIS MEANS THAT THE CORE OF THE CYCLONE IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE A LITTLE BIT CLOSER TO THE COAST OF MEXICO. BEYOND 36 HOURS...ERICK WILL BE SOUTH OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST UNTIL DISSIPATION. SINCE THE 34-KNOT WIND RADII WAS EXPANDED IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT BASED ON A SHIP REPORT...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO CABO CORRIENTES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 16.7N 103.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 104.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 18.9N 105.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 20.2N 107.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 21.4N 108.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 23.0N 113.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 10/0000Z 23.0N 117.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 23.0N 122.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA

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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 26

2013-07-06 04:40:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 060240 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 DALILA NOW CONSISTS OF A SMALL...BUT WELL-DEFINED...SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS AS SEEN IN THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGES FROM THE GEOSTATIONARY SATELLITE. SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DISSIPATED SINCE ABOUT 18Z WITH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING. BECAUSE OF INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR INDUCED BY TROPICAL STORM ERICK AND A COOLER MORE STABLE AIRMASS...LONG-LASTING DEEP CONVECTION IN DALILA IS NOT LIKELY TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW SHORTLY AND THEN GRADUALLY WIND DOWN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. DALILA IS MOVING VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST...AS THE EASTERLY STEERING FLOW IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE IS QUITE WEAK. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS JUST NORTH OF THE TRACK FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 17.1N 112.6W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 07/0000Z 17.1N 113.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/1200Z 17.1N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 08/0000Z 17.2N 114.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 09/0000Z 17.5N 115.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 6

2013-07-05 22:44:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 052044 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT ERICK IS INTENSIFYING WITH A DEVELOPED CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND TIGHT BANDING FEATURES. MICROWAVE DATA ALSO SHOW THAT AN EYE IS TRYING TO FORM...ALTHOUGH IT STILL APPEARS TO BE IN ITS PRIMITIVE STAGES. OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES SUPPORT 55-60 KT FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED...AND 60 KT IS CHOSEN BASED ON THE CONTINUED UPWARD TREND IN THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS NOT BEEN ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE INITIAL FORWARD MOTION OF 300/9...THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE NORTHEASTWARD SHIFT IN MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THIS AFTERNOON. THE SHIFT APPEARS TO BE DUE TO A SLIGHTLY DEEPER MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SOLUTION OVER CENTRAL MEXICO...WHICH CAUSES A WEAKER RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM. WHILE THIS CHANGE STILL KEEPS ERICK OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO...THE MODELS DO SHOW A SLIGHTLY LARGER THREAT TO BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN A 2-3 DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS MOVED NORTHEASTWARD OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT STILL LIES SOUTH OF THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE CONDITIONS STILL LOOK FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THIS LOWERING COULD BE DUE TO THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF MORE LAND INTERACTION AND/OR THE CYCLONE MOVING INTO COOLER WATERS A BIT FASTER. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS DECREASED SOMEWHAT AFTER 24H TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS...AND IS NEAR OR A BIT ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT MOST TIME PERIODS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 102.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 16.9N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.9N 105.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 106.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 108.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 08/1800Z 22.5N 112.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 09/1800Z 23.0N 116.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1800Z 23.0N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

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Tropical Depression DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 25

2013-07-05 22:33:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 052033 TCDEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 PM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 AFTER AN EARLIER BURST OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED CONSIDERABLY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. A 1654Z ASCAT-A OVERPASS INDICATED A FEW 26-KT WIND VECTORS JUST WEST OF THE CENTER WHEN AT LEAST SOME MODEST CONVECTION WAS STILL PRESENT. GIVEN THE WORSENING APPEARANCE IN RECENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THE FACT THAT THE CENTER IS NOW FULLY EXPOSED...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 25 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF BURST OF CONVECTION TONIGHT...THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS DUE TO SHARPLY INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CREATED BY THE OUTFLOW FROM STRENGTHENING TROPICAL STORM ERICK LOCATED TO THE EAST. DALILA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 24 HOURS...AND COMPLETELY DISSIPATE IN 48-72 HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CLOSE THE CONSENSUS INTENSITY MODELS ICON AND IVCN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/03 KT. NOW THAT THE LOW- AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS HAVE DECOUPLED...DALILA SHOULD BE INFLUENCED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY TO EAST-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL STORM ERICK. AS ERICK DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CYCLONE...DALILA COULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER 24 HOURS. BY THAT TIME...HOWEVER...DALILA WILL NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND IS CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 112.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 112.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 06/1800Z 17.0N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0600Z 16.9N 113.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1800Z 16.9N 114.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Storm ERICK Forecast Discussion Number 5

2013-07-05 16:52:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 051452 TCDEP5 TROPICAL STORM ERICK DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052013 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 05 2013 ERICK CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS FORMED...WITH TIGHT BANDING IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO SHOW THAT SOME INNER CORE FEATURES HAVE FORMED WITH PERHAPS THE START OF AN EYEWALL ON THE SOUTH SIDE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 50 KT... A BIT BELOW THE DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS DUE TO THE SUGGESTION FROM OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER DATA THAT THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE COULD BE LEADING THE INTENSITY CHANGE. CONDITIONS LOOK RIPE FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING WITH CONSIDERABLY LESS SHEAR FORECAST THAN INITIALLY EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE FIRST 24H FOLLOWS THE TREND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM/FSSE MODELS AND IS HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE. GIVEN THE RECENT SATELLITE TREND...THIS FORECAST COULD BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. AFTER THAT TIME...ERICK IS FORECAST TO MOVE VERY CLOSE TO SOME COOLER WATERS THAT DALILA UPWELLED A FEW DAYS AGO...AND THEN EVENTUALLY MOVE ACROSS MUCH COOLER WATERS FROM THE TYPICAL NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC COLD TONGUE. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS LEVELLED OFF AFTER 24H AND THEN STARTS A MORE RAPID DECLINE...SIMILAR TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND THE FLORIDA STATE SUPERENSEMBLE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...300/9. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL STAY OVER MEXICO TO KEEP THE STORM MOVING ON ABOUT THE SAME PATH FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED THROUGH THE FIRST 48H...KEEPING THE CYCLONE AT LEAST 90 NMI OFFSHORE OF MEXICO. AFTER THAT TIME...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON WHETHER RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL STAY FIRM OR IF AN UPPER LOW WILL ERODE PART OF THE RIDGE. THE NHC FORECAST IS NUDGED NORTHWARD TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE GUIDANCE MEMBERS STILL KEEP THE STORM OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 15.8N 102.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 16.3N 103.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 17.2N 104.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 18.1N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 19.1N 107.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 21.0N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 22.5N 115.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 119.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/STEWART

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