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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-09-14 16:39:12| Tropical Depression LIDIA

Issued at 900 AM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017

Hurricane Max Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-09-14 16:35:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141435 TCDEP1 Hurricane Max Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Max continues to have a well-defined eye in radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, even though the eye that was observed in earlier infrared satellite imagery has become obscured. Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB are up to T4.0/65 kt, but given the hurricane's structure as seen in radar data, the initial intensity is set slightly higher at 70 kt. Radar animations indicate that Max's eye has been moving just north of due east, and the initial motion is estimated to be 085/5 kt. Max is located to the north of a mid-level ridge extending southwest of Guatemala, and the flow around this ridge should force the hurricane to move eastward or east-northeastward across the coast of Guerrero or Oaxaca by this evening or tonight. After landfall, Max should move farther inland over southern Mexico. With sea surface temperatures near 30 degrees Celsius and relatively low shear, the environment appears conducive for further strengthening before Max reaches the coast. The new NHC forecast closely follows the SHIPS and LGEM statistical-dynamical guidance and shows a little more intensification during the next 12 hours than was indicated in the previous advisory. Max will weaken quickly after landfall, and is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico by 36 hours. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.3N 99.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.5N 99.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 16.9N 98.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion max forecast

Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 12

2017-09-14 16:34:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 141434 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 The depression is still poorly organized, as about 15 kt of easterly shear continues to separate the low- and mid-level circulation centers. The initial intensity remains 30 kt given that the cloud pattern has not changed much since the previous advisory. The SHIPS model shows the shear relaxing by 24 hours, and with the cyclone over 27-28C water, some slow strengthening is predicted. The cyclone begins to move into a drier and more stable airmass by days 4 and 5, with the shear possibly increasing again, so some weakening is expected by day 5. The initial motion estimate is a rather uncertain 280/04 since there haven't been any recent microwave passes. The depression is currently situated south of a narrow mid-level ridge. This feature weakens with time, leaving the cyclone is a region of weak steering currents, with most of the guidance favoring some slow poleward motion late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is close to the latest HFIP consensus aid HCCA and is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 15.4N 122.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 15.7N 124.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 15.6N 124.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 15.4N 125.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 15.6N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 16.1N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 16.8N 125.7W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan

Tags: number discussion tropical depression

Hurricane Max Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-09-14 13:53:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 141153 TCDEP1 Hurricane Max Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 700 AM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Radar imagery from Acapulco, Mexico, indicates that Max has continued to improve in structure and now has a well-defined eye and closed eyewall. An eye has also occasionally been evident in infrared satellite imagery. Based on these signs, Max has been upgraded to a hurricane with 65-kt winds. Max appears to be cruising eastward just offshore the coast of Mexico. However, the hurricane is still expected to move inland later today. The 12-hour point has been adjusted southward and increased to 75 kt to account for Max's recent motion, possible delayed landfall, and increased opportunity to strengthen before it reaches land. The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch from Zihuatanejo to Punta Maldonado to a Hurricane Warning. Life-threatening flooding rainfall is still expected in portions of the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. This special advisory is being issued in lieu of the regularly scheduled 7 AM CDT intermediate public advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1200Z 16.3N 100.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 16.6N 99.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 16.8N 99.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Tags: number discussion max forecast

Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 36

2017-09-14 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 140837 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 36 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Earlier this morning, Jose began to take on a sheared appearance in conventional and microwave imagery, though the outflow has since been restored. A 0356 UTC GPM overpass showed that the mid-level center was displaced to the south of the low-level center. Objective and subjective Final-T numbers have fallen, and on that basis, the initial intensity has been decreased slightly to 65 kt. I expect little change in strength through the forecast period. Moderate shear should prevent significant intensification for the next couple of days, and could cause Jose to weaken to a Tropical Storm. After that time, Jose may begin transitioning to a more baroclinicly-driven cyclone. In fact, the GFS shows Jose with some extratropical characteristics by day 5. The dynamical models all indicate that Jose could regain some strength during this period, so the new NHC forecast reflects that. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain 270/ 3 kt. Although the reasoning behind the track forecast has not changed, there has been a large shift to the west in the guidance since the last forecast. A mid-level ridge, now forecast to be a little stronger than previously expected, should cause Jose to turn toward the northwest, and eventually the north. Since the guidance has shifted left, the new official track forecast is west of the previous one, but now lays on the eastern side of the guidance envelope. I would prefer to see more run to run consistency before committing to a farther left track at this time. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0900Z 25.1N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/1800Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/0600Z 25.9N 68.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 15/1800Z 26.7N 70.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 16/0600Z 27.8N 71.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 17/0600Z 29.7N 72.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 18/0600Z 32.5N 71.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 19/0600Z 35.0N 70.5W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky

Tags: number discussion jose forecast

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