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Tropical Storm Max Forecast Discussion Number 2

2017-09-13 22:33:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 132032 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Max Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 PM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Visible imagery during the day indicate that the cloud pattern has improved in organization and consists of a well-defined cyclonically curved convective band. This band wraps around an area of deep convection where the center is located. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB agree that the cyclone is now a tropical storm with 35 kt winds. A portion of the circulation is already interacting with land, so no significant strengthening is forecast before the center moves inland. The government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm warning for a portion of the coast. The depression is located at the bottom of a large mid-latitude trough, and this pattern will carry the depression slowly east- northeastward toward the coast of Mexico, and then farther inland. Most of the global models dissipate Max once it moves over the high terrain, and the NHC forecast calls for the cyclone to dissipate in about 48 hour or sooner. The main threat from Max will be torrential rains over portions of southwestern Mexico. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 16.1N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 16.5N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 99.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 17.0N 97.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 34

2017-09-13 22:32:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 132031 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Northwesterly shear continues to affect Jose, with exposed low cloud lines over the northwestern portion of the circulation. Overall, the system is a little less well-organized than it was 24 hours ago, with less evidence of banding features. The intensity is kept at 65 kt in agreement with the latest Dvorak classification from TAFB. The global models continue to show significant shear over Jose for the next several days, and this shear is forecast to become quite strong by days 4 and 5. The official intensity forecast shows a little weakening in a couple of days, but it would not be surprising to see Jose drop below hurricane status sooner than shown here. Jose appears to be nearing the base of its anticipated anticyclonic loop while drifting slowly southward. The cyclone is expected to turn to the west and west-northwest over the next day or so. Later in the forecast period, a northward motion is expected as a mid- level high builds to the east-northeast. Jose is expected to move through a break in the subtropical ridge in 3-5 days. The official track forecast is similar to its predecessor and is about in the middle of the reliable guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 25.3N 65.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 25.1N 65.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 25.4N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 30.3N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 33.2N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 36.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-09-13 16:55:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 131455 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 13 2017 Satellite images indicate that the area of disturbed weather near the southwest coast of Mexico has developed a well-defined center surrounded by bands of deep convection. T-numbers from both TAFB and SAB are 2.0 on the Dvorak scale and on this basis, advisories have been initiated on Tropical Depression Sixteen-E. A portion of the circulation is already interacting with land, and no significant strengthening is forecast before the center moves inland. Given that the there is a possibility of tropical storm force winds mainly in gusts, the government of Mexico has issued a tropical storm watch for a portion of the coast. The depression is located at the bottom of a large mid-latitude trough, and this pattern will carry the depression slowly northeastward toward the coast of Mexico, and then farther inland where the cyclone is expected to become a remnant low. Very heavy rains are the main threat from this tropical cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.2N 101.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 16.7N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 17.0N 100.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 17.0N 99.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 48H 15/1200Z 17.0N 98.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 32

2017-09-13 10:51:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130850 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 32 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Wed Sep 13 2017 Jose continues to be affected by 20-25 kt of northerly vertical shear, and a recent GMI overpass shows that the low-level center is at the northern edge of the convective mass. While the current organization is that of a system of less than hurricane strength, the various satellite intensity estimates remain near 65 kt. Thus, Jose remains a hurricane for this advisory. The GMI overpass shows that Jose is moving southeastward or 135/7. A large deep-layer trough to the northeast of the cyclone is responsible for this motion. However, this trough will soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its northwest, north, and eventually northeast. This evolution should cause Jose to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge. The guidance has come into somewhat better agreement for this advisory, as the UKMET has shifted eastward from its Florida landfall forecast and now shows a northward motion along 75W by 120 h. However, there still remains a significant spread between that model on the left and the ECMWF on the right, which has Jose closer to 67W by that time. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 72 h, and then it is nudged just a little to the west of the previous track. The 72-120 h portion of the forecast track lies west of the HCCA, Florida State Superensemble, and ECMWF, but lies to the east of the other consensus models. There is a lot of uncertainty in the intensity forecast. First, the large-scale models forecast the current shear is likely to persist for at least the next 24 h, followed by some decrease at about 36-48 h. However, none of the intensity guidance shows weakening during the first 24 h or much strengthening at 36-48 h. Second, the cyclone is likely to cross its path, and possibly a wake of colder sea surface temperatures, between 48-72 h. Third, Jose should encounter stronger shear after 72 h, but it may interact with a mid- to upper-level trough over the eastern United States that may give the system a kick through baroclinic processes. Indeed, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF agree on showing a falling central pressure from 72-120 h. Based on the overall trend of the guidance, the intensity forecast is tweaked a little from the previous advisory to show little change in strength through 48 h and slight weakening thereafter. However, this is a low-confidence forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 26.1N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 25.4N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 25.0N 65.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 25.3N 66.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 26.2N 68.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 28.0N 71.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.5N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.0N 69.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 31

2017-09-13 04:44:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 130243 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 31 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 Recent microwave imagery has revealed that Jose has a fairly sturdy structure, despite 20-25 kt of northerly shear. The hurricane has a well-defined mid-level eye, and a 2241 UTC WindSat pass shows a well-defined low-level circulation that is slightly eroded on the northwest side. Since Dvorak final-T numbers are 4.0 from TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity remains 65 kt, although it wouldn't be surprising if the winds were a little stronger than that. Jose could strengthen slightly during the next 12-24 hours while it remains in a regime of northerly shear, and models like the HWRF and HCCA support that thinking. After 24 hours, the shear is expected to turn out of the west-northwest and west directions, which are less likely to support intensification. Therefore, the NHC official forecast follows the trend of the intensity consensus (IVCN), showing Jose becoming a tropical storm on days 3 through 5. The ECMWF shows Jose encountering significant westerly shear by day 5, so it's possible that NHC forecast may be a little high toward the end of the forecast period. The microwave data indicated that Jose's center is a little more southeast than previously estimated, and the initial motion estimate is now 125/8 kt. Jose is being pushed southeastward on the back side of a large mid-latitude trough, but this trough will soon leave Jose behind with the subtropical ridge building in to its north. As a result, Jose is expected to make a slow clockwise loop during the next 3 days and then turn northward and northeastward once it moves around the western side of the ridge. Only the UKMET disagrees with this scenario by maintaining a persistent ridge to the north, and that model is discounted at this time. The NHC track forecast lies closest to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF for most of the forecast period, and it's only a bit southwest of the previous forecast through day 3 to account for the updated initial position. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 26.5N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 25.9N 65.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 25.3N 65.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 25.2N 66.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 25.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 27.3N 70.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 30.0N 70.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 32.5N 68.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg

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