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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 43

2017-09-09 23:52:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 092151 CCA TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 43...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 500 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 Corrected day of week to Sunday in first Key Message Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane sampling Irma indicate that the hurricane has not recovered yet from its interaction with Cuba. It is estimated that the maximum winds are 110 kt. Given the excellent satellite presentation, the lower pressure just reported by the NOAA plane, and the fact that the hurricane will move over the warm waters of the Straits of Florida, some intensification is anticipated during the next 24 hours. Irma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane while it moves near or over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. After 48 hours, Irma will be moving farther inland and weakening. Radar data indicate that Irma is moving toward the west-northwest at about 8 kt. The turn toward the northwest and north-northwest is about to begin since the hurricane is already at the western edge of the subtropical ridge. The track guidance continues to be tightly packed, and the bulk of the models take the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, and given the good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is high. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in southwest Florida should be completed within the next few hours, as tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin tonight. 2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials. 3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia and portions of South Carolina and Alabama. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 23.4N 80.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 24.1N 81.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 25.7N 82.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 28.3N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 31.2N 83.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 12/1800Z 35.5N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 13/1800Z 36.1N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila/Brennan

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 18

2017-09-09 23:02:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 092102 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 500 PM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to be an impressive hurricane. Satellite intensity estimates have been gradually increasing, with TAFB and SAB coming in at 5.5, ADT at 5.8, and 6.0 from CPHC. Indeed, the satellite presentation has been slowly improving over the last several hours as the CDO becomes more symmetric once again, the eye has warmed and become more distinct, and outflow has improved somewhat in the southwest quadrant. In deference to the earlier Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission which found winds higher than the earlier satellite estimates, the initial intensity is kept at 125 kt, but this could be a bit conservative. Another aircraft will be in to sample the wind field around 00z. The initial motion continues to be a fairly steady 310/12. Jose is pushing northwestward around a mid- and upper-level high located to the northeast. This general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days as the high spreads southward. After 48 hours, the models are in good agreement showing Jose slowing to a crawl and executing a slow loop well to the east of the Bahamas. The much slower forward motion will occur as Jose becomes embedded within a large mid-level anticyclone and steering currents diminish. The guidance has shifted this loop slightly to the south and west for this cycle and the official forecast has been adjusted to be in better alignment with the model consensus. The intensity forecast is somewhat challenging. Although the models insist that southwesterly shear will increase over Jose through the next 36 hours, the UW-CIMSS analysis shows that Jose is under a narrow zone of weak shear that appears to be moving westward in tandem with the hurricane. This should allow Jose to maintain its intensity in the short term, with gradual weakening expected thereafter. The official forecast is not as aggressive with weakening as the previous forecast package. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 19.2N 62.4W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 20.4N 64.0W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 22.0N 66.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 23.7N 67.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 11/1800Z 25.0N 69.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 12/1800Z 26.3N 69.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 13/1800Z 26.1N 67.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 14/1800Z 25.0N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH $$ Forecaster R Ballard

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 17

2017-09-09 17:03:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 091503 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 09 2017 Jose continues to exhibit a well-defined eye in visible and infrared satellite imagery, and U.S. Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft measurements suggest that this eye has become slightly more asymmetric. The eye is evident on the Meteo France radar and it is beginning to pass just north of the northernmost Leeward Islands. The aircraft data indicate that Jose remains a category 4 hurricane, and reconnaissance aircraft has reported SFMR and flight-level winds that support an initial intensity of 125 kt for this advisory. The latest minimum pressure reported by the plane is 945 mb. Visible and infrared satellite imagery indicate northeastward elongation of the cirrus canopy accompanying Jose, suggesting the southwesterly shear over the system is beginning to increase. The interaction between Jose and shear accompanying the aforementioned trough will likely result in a weakening trend through the weekend. The official intensity forecast has trended slightly lower, consistent with the latest IVCN and HCCA output. Once the deep shear superimposing Jose weakens with the departure of the mid-latitude trough, Jose's weakening is expected slow by early next week. During the next couple of days, Jose is expected to turn more north of west while being steered around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. The latest official track forecast reflects a slight increase in forward motion over the next couple of days. By early next week, the flow around the trough will result in a northward, then eastward turn around 26N. Thereafter, Jose forward motion should slow down as it is left within an area of weak steering current behind the trough. The latest track of Jose has been shifted southward after 72 h to be more consistent with the latest ECMWF and TVCN guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 18.3N 61.3W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 19.4N 62.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 20.9N 64.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 22.6N 66.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 24.1N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 26.0N 68.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 13/1200Z 26.0N 67.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 14/1200Z 25.7N 66.7W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cohen/Brown

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Hurricane Irma Forecast Discussion Number 42

2017-09-09 16:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT41 KNHC 091458 TCDAT1 Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 42 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017 The interaction of Irma's circulation with Cuba has resulted in some weakening of the hurricane. Data from an Air Force plane indicate that the maximum winds are now 110 kt. However, once the circulation moves away from Cuba, restrengthening is forecast and Irma is expected to remain a very dangerous hurricane for the next 2 days while moving very near the Florida peninsula. The eye has been moving toward the west or 280 degrees at about 8 kt. The hurricane is about the reach the southwestern portion of the subtropical high, and the expected turn to the northwest and north-northwest should begin soon. The track guidance is tightly packed and takes the hurricane over the Florida Keys and near or over the Florida Peninsula. The NHC forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope and given the good agreement among models, the confidence in the track forecast is high. Irma is now under the scope of Key West radar, so hourly updates will begin at 1600 UTC. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Irma will continue to bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to portions of the Bahamas and the north coast of Cuba, especially over the adjacent Cuban Keys, through tonight. 2. Irma is expected to make landfall in Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, bringing life-threatening wind impacts to much of the state regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward along the coast of Georgia and South Carolina where a Hurricane Watch has been issued. 3. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials. 4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding. Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 22.8N 79.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 10/0000Z 23.4N 80.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 10/1200Z 24.5N 81.6W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 11/0000Z 26.4N 82.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 11/1200Z 29.0N 82.8W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 12/1200Z 34.5N 86.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 13/1200Z 36.0N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 14/1200Z 37.0N 88.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND $$ Forecaster Avila

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Remnants of Katia Forecast Discussion Number 16

2017-09-09 16:33:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017 000 WTNT43 KNHC 091433 TCDAT3 Remnants Of Katia Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132017 Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2017 It is nearly impossible to find a low level circulation center from Katia. Satellite imagery showed the mid-level center separated from the low level center overnight, and the remaining deep convection has all but dissipated leaving behind layered low and mid level clouds. Without evidence to suggest otherwise, the final advisory position is mainly an extrapolation of the previous position. There will still be a threat for heavy rain, flash floods, and mudslides over the mountainous terrain from the trough. Seas associated with remnants of Katia will continue to subside along the coast of Mexico near the landfall point today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/1500Z 20.0N 97.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster R Ballard

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