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Hurricane Max Forecast Discussion Number 7
2017-09-14 22:40:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 142040 TCDEP1 Hurricane Max Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 PM CDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Max's structure continued to improve since the last advisory, with a well-defined eye showing up in both visible and infrared satellite images for a couple of hours. At 1800 UTC, satellite classifications ranged from 65 to 90 kt, so guidance was initialized at 75 kt. However, Max's center appears to be moving onshore to the east of Acapulco, and the eye that was observed in satellite imagery has disappeared. The advisory intensity is therefore set a little lower at 70 kt. The initial motion is 080/7 kt, with Max being steered eastward to the north of a mid-level ridge extending southwestward from Central America. An eastward or east-northwestward motion is expected to continue, and Max will be moving farther inland over southern Mexico. There were only a few trackers available from the track guidance, and the NHC forecast is primarily an extrapolation of the current motion for the next 12 hours. Now that Max is moving onshore and will be encountering the mountains of southern Mexico, rapid weakening is likely. In fact, the center of the small cyclone will probably not fare well in the high terrain, and Max is forecast to dissipate by 24 hours, if not sooner. Heavy rainfall continues to be the primary threat from Max. Rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with isolated amounts of 20 inches, are expected over the Mexican states of Guerrero and Oaxaca, and life-threatening flash floods and mudslides are possible. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 16.6N 99.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...ON THE COAST 12H 15/0600Z 16.9N 98.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 13
2017-09-14 22:35:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 142035 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Visible satellite imagery shows that the depression is still poorly organized. The circulation is highly elongated, and the associated deep convection is not well organized due to moderate easterly shear. The initial wind speed remains 30 kt, and leans toward the lower Dvorak T-numbers provided by SAB given the poor satellite presentation. The vertical shear over the system is expected to decrease within the next day or two, which should provide an opportunity for the system to strengthen. Both the statistical guidance and the global models predict modest intensification over the weekend, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical storm in 36 to 48 h, with some additional strengthening through day 3. After that time, drier air and increasing shear is likely to cause some weakening by the end of the forecast period. The initial motion estimate is 280/4 kt. The depression is forecast to move generally westward at a slower-than-climatological rate during the next couple of days while it is situated within an area of weak steering flow. Later in the period, a mid-level trough that is expected to deepen well southwest of southern California should steer the depression slowly poleward by early next week. However, there is increasing spread in the track guidance at days 4 and 5, and there is lower confidence in the track forecast at those times. The NHC track forecast is once again in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 15.6N 123.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 15.9N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 15.9N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 15.6N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 16.0N 125.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 16.7N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 17.3N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 38
2017-09-14 22:34:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 142034 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 38 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 The cloud pattern of Jose has become more symmetric this afternoon, with the apparent center perhaps a little more centered in the central dense overcast. Dvorak intensity estimates, however, are unchanged from six hours ago, so the initial wind speed remains 60 kt. Visible imagery suggest some drier air has become entrained into the circulation of the storm, with outflow boundaries noted in the northern semicircle. This dry air should gradually mix out while Jose remains over warm waters with light-to-moderate shear conditions. This environment favors some strengthening over the next few days, and the official forecast reflects this idea, lying between the model consensus and the global models. In the longer term, shear is forecast to increase and water temperatures should moderate. Therefore, some weakening is probable at days 4 and 5, and that is reflected in the official forecast. Jose continues to move west-northwestward, now at about 7 kt. The storm should turn northwestward by Saturday and northward by early Monday while it moves around a ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean. Model guidance, however, is not in good agreement on the strength of that ridge, leading to some significant model differences on this cycle. The leftmost global model is the UKMET, which moves Jose significantly farther westward than the other guidance in the short term, leading to a closer pass of Jose to the Outer Banks. However, most of the rest of the guidance show the northward turn starting earlier, leading to a more offshore track. Given the UKMET's recent westward bias, the new NHC forecast will put more weight on the GFS/ECMWF solutions, leading to very little change to the previous track. It should be noted there is a fair bit of spread in the global models and their ensembles, which does not give me a lot of confidence in the long-term track forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 25.2N 67.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 25.6N 68.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 26.5N 70.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0600Z 27.5N 71.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/1800Z 28.6N 72.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 17/1800Z 30.7N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 18/1800Z 33.5N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 19/1800Z 36.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-14 22:33:42| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 37
2017-09-14 16:48:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 141448 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Satellite images show that Jose remains a sheared tropical cyclone. The center of the cyclone is on the northwestern edge of the deep convection, with any significant banding features in the southeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose has weakened slightly, so the initial wind speed is set to 60 kt. Using fixes from early-morning microwave data, Jose appears to be moving west-northwestward at about 6 kt due to a building mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone. Jose should gradually turn northwestward by the weekend and northward early next week while it moves around the ridge. A trough currently over the Lower Mississippi Valley into the northwestern Gulf of Mexico is expected to play a key role in how close Jose comes to the eastern United States. Some of the model solutions show the trough tugging on the tropical cyclone, causing a more north-northwestward motion at the end of the period, while others have the trough deflecting the cyclone more out to sea. While it is too early for details at this point, the model guidance is generally west of the previous forecast, so the new NHC prediction is shifted to the left, about 60 n mi west-southwest of previous forecast at day 5. Vertical shear is forecast to lessen in about a day near Jose, so restrengthening is expected to commence on Friday since the cyclone is over warm water. After day 3, Jose will be interacting with the aforementioned Lower Mississippi Valley trough, which will probably cause an increase in shear, although some baroclinic energy could lessen those effects. Although the official intensity forecast shows little change at the end of the period, the model guidance does show Jose becoming larger and more spread out as it interacts with the trough. Jose is producing a large swell field that will affect much of the southwestern Atlantic basin during the next few days, causing rough surf and rip current conditions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 24.9N 66.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 25.1N 67.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 25.8N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 26.7N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 27.7N 72.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 29.8N 72.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 32.4N 72.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 35.5N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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