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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 6
2017-09-15 22:35:19| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 PM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-15 22:35:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 152035 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 PM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression has become less organized since earlier today with the center now exposed to the north and northwest of the deep convection due to northwesterly shear. Dvorak data T-numbers have decreased, but an average of the current intensity numbers of 1.5 and 2.5 support maintaining an initial wind speed of 30 kt. Although the depression is forecast to move over warm water, moderate northwesterly shear and dry mid-level air to the north of the cyclone is likely to prevent significant intensification. However, most of the intensity guidance shows some strengthening and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within the next day or two. After that time, increasing westerly shear produced by a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to weaken the system, and the tropical cyclone is now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low by day 5. The new NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward to be in better agreement with the various intensity consensus aids. The depression has jogged a little northward this afternoon, but the long-term motion is west-northwestward at about 10 kt. The depression is expected to move westward to west-northwestward to the south of a narrow ridge over the eastern Atlantic over the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is forecast to weaken as a deep-layer trough becomes established over the east-central Atlantic. This should cause the cyclone to gain some latitude later in the forecast period. The more northward initial position has required a northward adjustment of the track forecast, but the NHC track remains along the southern side of the guidance envelope, in agreement with the typically reliable HFIP corrected consensus model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/2100Z 12.6N 29.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0600Z 12.8N 30.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1800Z 12.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0600Z 13.0N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1800Z 13.2N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1800Z 14.6N 38.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 19/1800Z 16.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/1800Z 18.5N 46.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 41
2017-09-15 16:53:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 151453 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 41 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 Satellite images indicate that a ragged eye is trying to form with Jose, although microwave data show that any eyewall features are broken. Dvorak estimates suggest that Jose is close to becoming a hurricane again, but since an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter will be there in a couple hours, it is best to leave the wind speed 60 kt for now. Environmental conditions seem to be conducive for intensification, as water vapor images show a noticeable improvement in outflow compared to yesterday. The light-shear window should be short lived, since southwesterly shear is forecast to increase by all models on Sunday. Thus some intensification is shown up to that day, with a gradual weakening forecast after the weekend due to decreasing SSTs and shear. Little change was made to the previous intensity forecast. Jose has turned northwestward overnight at about 8 kt. A west- northwest to northwest motion is forecast through tomorrow while the storm moves around the southwestern periphery of a west Atlantic ridge. Jose is forecast to turn northward on Sunday and continue in that direction through Tuesday as it moves between the ridge and a small trough over the southeastern United States. Model guidance remains in fairly good agreement with the track of Jose, although the GFS-based guidance is a lot faster than the UKMET or ECMWF models. The new forecast is about the same as the previous one, near the corrected-consensus guidance. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors at days 4 and 5 are about 175 and 225 miles, respectively. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward, reaching the mid-Atlantic coast and the coast of southern New England during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Although the center of Jose is currently forecast to pass well east of the North Carolina coast early next week, tropical-storm- force winds are expected to extend well west of the center and could approach the North Carolina Outer Banks on Monday. Farther north along the U.S. east coast, it is too soon to determine if any other direct impacts from Jose will occur. Interests along the U.S. east coast from North Carolina to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 26.5N 69.4W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 27.1N 70.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 28.1N 71.9W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 29.1N 72.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 30.4N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 33.3N 72.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 36.1N 71.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 39.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 16
2017-09-15 16:40:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151440 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression has not really improved in organization, and there still appears to be east-northeasterly shear displacing the deep convection to the southwest of the center. The intensity remains 30 kt based on a blend of TAFB and SAB Dvorak estimates. The shear over the depression is expected to decrease soon, reaching a minimum in about 24-36 hours. Therefore, some strengthening appears reasonable, and the depression may finally be able to become a tropical storm on Saturday. An increase in easterly shear should lead to weakening by the end of the forecast period. Some of the models contained in ICON seem overblown on the cyclone's intensification, so the NHC forecast is lower than the intensity consensus and lies closest to the SHIPS model and HCCA. The subtropical ridge to the north of the depression is expected to push the cyclone slowly west-southwestward through 24 hours. After that time, a break in the ridge will develop, which should cause the cyclone to drift northward through days 3 and 4. A re-establishment of the ridge by day 5 should impart a faster westward motion by the end of the forecast period. Based on the latest model guidance, the new NHC forecast is a little west of and faster than the previous official forecast, especially on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 15.9N 125.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 15.7N 125.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 15.5N 125.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 15.6N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 16.1N 126.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 17.5N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 18.2N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 18.0N 128.7W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 5
2017-09-15 16:34:50| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017
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