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Remnants of Max Forecast Discussion Number 9
2017-09-15 10:37:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 150836 TCDEP1 Remnants Of Max Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162017 400 AM CDT Fri Sep 15 2017 The high terrain of Mexico has disrupted Max's circulation and the system has degenerated into a broad area of low pressure. Surface observations indicate that winds associated with the low are barely 25 kt. The remnants of Max will probably continue moving slowly eastward until dissipation later today. The remnants of Max are still expected to produce heavy rain in the states of Guerrero and Oaxaca. This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Max. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.0N 98.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF MAX 12H 15/1800Z 17.5N 97.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF MAX 24H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-09-15 04:55:42| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 14 2017
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2017-09-15 04:53:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150253 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Convection associated with an area of low pressure over the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized during the past 12 hours, with an increase in banding over the western portion of the circulation. A Dvorak classification of 2.0 from TAFB suggests that the intensity is around 30 kt. The system is currently embedded within an area of light to moderate easterly shear. This should not prevent the system from gradually strengthening while it moves over warm water during the next couple of days. After that time, a mid- to upper-level trough over the central Atlantic is expected to cause an increase in southwesterly shear, which could become quite strong by days 4 and 5. As a result, weakening is expected late in the forest period. The NHC intensity forecast is between the higher statistical guidance and the lower dynamical models. The depression is moving west-northwestward or 285/19 kt. A high pressure ridge currently over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to weaken as the aforementioned trough develops over the central Atlantic by early next week. This should cause a significant reduction in the forward speed of the depression over the weekend. There is some spread in the track guidance later in the period, with the GFS taking a stronger cyclone more northward, while the EC takes a weaker system more westward. The NHC track is between these solutions and is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 10.7N 25.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 11.2N 27.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 11.5N 29.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 11.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 11.5N 31.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 11.8N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 12.8N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 14.4N 43.3W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 14
2017-09-15 04:49:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150249 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 14 2017 Convection has increased a little near the alleged center of the depression, but a low-level center is difficult to identify in recent AMSR and SSMIS imagery. A larger SW-NE elongated circulation is still present, however, and it is possible that the center is reforming closer to the convection within the larger cyclonic envelope. In an absence of any other data to use, the intensity has been held at 30 kt since Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB are unchanged from 6 hours ago. Assuming the center will soon consolidate under the convection, some intensification over the forecast period is still expected since the shear is low and SSTs are fairly warm. By the end of the forecast period, drier air is expected to inhibit convection, which should cause the cyclone to begin to weaken. No significant changes have been made to the intensity forecast, which is based on a selective ensemble of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF. Given the poor definition of the low-level circulation, the initial motion estimate is highly uncertain, but estimated to be 285/5 kt. The cyclone is still embedded within weak steering flow, and all of the global models forecast that it will remain so for the entirety of the forecast period. While the spread is fairly high, in general the models still forecast that a deep-layer trough well to the north of the depression should allow for a slow northward drift after 48 h. The NHC track forecast remains close to the corrected consensus HCCA, and is fairly close to the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 15.8N 124.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 15.9N 124.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 15.8N 125.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 15.7N 125.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 15.9N 125.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 16.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.5N 125.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.7N 126.5W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 39
2017-09-15 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150247 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 39 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 PM AST Thu Sep 14 2017 Although the shear affecting Jose for the past several days appears to be relenting, deep convection is still limited to the eastern semicircle of the cyclone, perhaps in part due to dry air that was observed earlier today. A blend a objective and subjective current intensity estimates still supports an intensity of 60 kt. No change has been made to the intensity forecast, which remains near the multi-model consensus. Based on SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF models, Jose should become embedded in a more humid environment beginning in about 12 h, and this, along with warm SSTSs, should support at least gradual strengthening. The intensity guidance remains in fairly good agreement that Jose will become a hurricane again tomorrow, and will have about 48-72 hours to intensify further before the shear increases substantially. Toward the end of the forecast, gradual weakening is forecast, but Jose is still expected to be a hurricane at day 5. Much like the intensity forecast, very little change has been made to the NHC track forecast. Based on a few recent microwave images, Jose seems to be continuing to move west-northwestward at around 7 kt. Jose is still expected to track along the western periphery of a mid-level ridge, causing the cyclone to gradually turn toward the north over the next 2 days. Aside from the UKMET, which remains an outlier, the models are in fairly good agreement on the future heading of Jose, and vary mostly in speed. The new NHC forecast continues to generally split the GFS and ECMWF models, and is close to HCCA, which should account for the UKMET's recent west bias. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 25.5N 68.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 26.1N 69.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 26.9N 70.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 27.9N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 29.0N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 31.4N 72.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 34.2N 71.6W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 37.0N 70.5W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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