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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
2017-09-15 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 151433 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The depression hasn't changed much in organization since the last advisory, with curved bands primarily in the southern semicircle due to some northerly shear. Dvorak estimates range from 25 to 35 kt, so the initial wind speed is kept at 30 kt. This is an uncertain estimate because ASCAT has not sampled the cyclone or its precursor system in quite some time. While the depression is forecast to be over warm waters for the 5-day period, westerly shear is likely to increase by early next week due to a large trough over the east- central Atlantic. Until day 3, the system should be experiencing light or moderate shear, which would favor gradual strengthening. The model guidance has backed off some since the last advisory, so the wind speed forecast is decreased at long range. However, the new NHC prediction still lies on the high side of the guidance. The depression is slowing down, and is now moving west-northwestward at 9 kt. A west or west-northwest track is anticipated for the next several days while the system remains south of an increasingly skinny ridge over the eastern Atlantic. At long range, the system could turn more to the northwest or north as a trough deepens over the east-central Atlantic. A weaker cyclone, however, would tend to feel less influence from the trough, and continue moving west- northwestward. This is the solution suggested by the ECMWF and its ensembles plus the HFIP corrected consensus models, and the latest NHC prediction stays just to the northeast of that guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 11.4N 28.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 11.7N 29.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/1200Z 11.9N 31.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 17/0000Z 11.9N 32.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 17/1200Z 12.1N 33.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/1200Z 13.2N 36.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/1200Z 14.7N 41.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 20/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Storm Norma Forecast Discussion Number 4
2017-09-15 11:00:00| Tropical Depression LIDIA
Issued at 300 AM MDT Fri Sep 15 2017
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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 15
2017-09-15 11:00:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150859 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 AM PDT Fri Sep 15 2017 Just like it has on several previous occasions already, convection has decreased near the center of the depression. That said, the fact that there even is deep convection near the center is still an improvement compared to 24 hours ago. The estimated intensity remains 30 kt based on an average of TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications. There is no change in the reasoning behind the intensity forecast, and if convection near the center of the depression can persist, the cyclone may finally begin to slowly intensify. The intensity forecast is still based on a selective consensus of DSHP, LGEM, and HWRF, since the significant intensification shown by the HMON and COAMPS models seems unlikely, given the current structure of the cyclone. A couple recent microwave images indicate that the center remains somewhat ill-defined. My best estimate of the initial motion is 270/4 kt, but this is based in part on continuity from the previous advisory. Little change was required to the track forecast since the depression remains embedded within weak steering flow and is not expected to move very much throughout the 5 day period. The models continue to show a slow northward drift in a couple of days, followed by a slow turn back toward the west as a mid-level ridge begins to build to the northwest. My forecast is close to HCCA, but gives a little extra weight to the ECMWF since it seems to have performed well for the depression so far. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 15.9N 124.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 15.9N 125.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 15.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 15.7N 125.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 17.0N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 17.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 17.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Storm Jose Forecast Discussion Number 40
2017-09-15 10:59:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150858 TCDAT2 Tropical Storm Jose Discussion Number 40 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 Jose is showing signs of becoming better organized. The low-level center is embedded well within a growing central dense overcast (CDO). Despite the improved appearance of Jose, the Dvorak classifications are largely unchanged since 6 hours ago, so the intensity has been held at 60 kt. There has been no change in any of the intensity guidance, so I see no reason to substantially change the intensity forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus, and continues to show Jose regaining hurricane status later today. Beginning around 72 h, an increase in shear should bring an end to intensification, and will probably cause Jose to weaken. Once again, some of the global models suggest that Jose will remain a tropical cyclone through day 5, but that extratropical transition could begin around that time. If that happens, baroclinic forcing could help maintain the intensity of Jose, even as the shear increases. Because the low-level circulation center of Jose is hidden beneath the CDO, the initial position and heading are fairly uncertain. My best estimate of the current motion is 290/7 kt. Despite the initial motion uncertainty, the global models are coming into better agreement on the track of Jose. The UKMET is now more in line with the other models in keeping the center of Jose offshore of the U.S. That said, the most recent GFS and ECMWF runs show a farther west track, so the official track forecast has been shifted about 30 n mi in that direction. My new forecast is near the HFIP corrected consensus, and now lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda, the Bahamas, the northern coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico, and the southeast coast of the United States, and will spread northward along the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions. 2. Jose could produce other direct impacts next week along portions of the east coast of the United States from North Carolina northward to New England, but it is too soon to determine what those impacts might be or where they could occur. Interests along U.S. east coast from North Carolina northward to New England should monitor the progress of Jose during the next several days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 25.9N 68.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 26.4N 70.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 27.4N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 28.3N 72.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 29.4N 72.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 32.2N 72.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 35.0N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 38.0N 71.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Tropical Depression Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 2
2017-09-15 10:50:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 000 WTNT44 KNHC 150850 TCDAT4 Tropical Depression Fourteen Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 15 2017 The cloud pattern of the depression rapidly became better organized several hours ago when advisories were initiated. Since that time, the structure has changed little, and Dvorak T-numbers suggest that the winds are still 30 kt. Currently, the cyclone is embedded within a favorable environment of low shear, and the NHC forecast calls for gradual intensification during the next 3 days. However, the global models (primarily the GFS and the ECMWF) develop a large upper-level trough over the central Atlantic which will bring high shear over the cyclone by day 4. This should result in weakening as indicated in the forecast. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression has slowed down and is moving toward the west or 270 degrees at 13 kt. The depression is being steered by the subtropical ridge to the north. The same trough that will cause an increase in the shear will also weaken the subtropical ridge, causing the cyclone to turn more to the west-northwest beyond 3 days. The NHC track is very close to HFIP corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model consensus TVCX. These two models have been performing very well so far this season. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 10.6N 27.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 11.0N 28.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 11.1N 30.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 11.2N 31.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 11.3N 32.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 12.2N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 13.5N 40.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 15.0N 44.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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