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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 6

2017-09-13 04:42:58| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130242 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 Although deep convection associated with the depression has increased since the previous advisory, it remains displaced to the west of the center due to about 15 kt of easterly wind shear. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt, in agreement with a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. The current wind shear affecting the depression is expected to persist overnight, so little change in intensity is forecast during that time. Thereafter, the global models show the upper-level wind pattern becoming a little less hostile over the depression. This slightly more favorable atmospheric environment combined with warm SSTs should allow the system to strengthen a little. Earlier model solutions showed the depression interacting with a developing system to its east, but the guidance is showing less interaction now. Based on the model trends and the expected environmental conditions, the NHC intensity forecast no longer calls for the depression to become a remnant low, and instead predicts the system to remain a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days. This forecast is in good agreement with the latest models, except at day 5 where it lies on the low side of the guidance. Satellite fixes suggest that the depression is moving just south of due west, 265 degrees, at 11 kt. A continued west motion, but at a much slower pace is expected during the next few days as a mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone weakens. By the end of the forecast period, the system could become stationary when it is expected to be embedded in very weak steering currents. The NHC track forecast is a little faster than the previous one to come in line with the latest model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 15.4N 118.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/1200Z 15.2N 119.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 14/0000Z 15.3N 121.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1200Z 15.5N 122.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/0000Z 15.6N 123.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 16/0000Z 15.5N 125.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 17/0000Z 15.5N 126.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 18/0000Z 15.6N 126.6W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 5

2017-09-12 22:33:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 122033 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 200 PM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The depression is struggling to maintain deep convection in the face of moderate to strong vertical shear. All of the limited deep convection is displaced about 60 nm west of its center. The TAFB and SAB Dvorak Current Intensity values have not changed, so the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The dislocation of the deep convection should continue, as it's being forced by strong easterlies due to an upper-level ridge to the north of the depression. Moderate shear should continue for the next couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the depression to intensify. In about two days, the depression may begin interacting with a developing tropical cyclone to its east. (This new system is currently in the Tropical Weather Outlook with a high chance of formation within the next five days.) One plausible scenario is for the depression to be absorbed by the new tropical cyclone. The official intensity forecast instead shows gradual weakening as the depression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly hostile upper-level environment. The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one and is based upon a blend of the global models, the LGEM statistical scheme, and the COAMPS mesoscale hurricane model. The depression is moving toward the west at 12 kt, primarily being steered by the deep-layer ridge to its north. The depression should continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate of forward speed during the next couple of days. At days three and four, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the developing tropical cyclone to the depression's east. The official track forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET (whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone instead) and is about the same as the previous advisory. This track prediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the divergence of plausible outcomes for the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.6N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 118.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 14.9N 120.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.1N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 15.3N 122.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 15.5N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1800Z 15.5N 124.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 30

2017-09-12 22:33:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 122032 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 30 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 PM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 Jose's convective cloud mass has evolved from a rather shapeless one into a comma-type pattern today. This increased organization suggests that the cyclone is at least holding its own in terms of intensity. The advisory intensity of 65 kt is in agreement with a Dvorak T-number from TAFB and a Current Intensity number from SAB. The dynamical guidance shows moderate to strong shear, from varying directions, over Jose throughout the forecast period. The consensus of the intensity models shows little change in strength for the next 5 days, and so does the official forecast. This is a slight change from the previous forecast which called for Jose to weaken to a tropical storm within a day or so. Given the current trend toward better organization, however, Jose could easily intensify more than shown here. A slight repositioning of the working best track was done using a center fix from an excellent Windsat image from earlier today. The initial motion estimate is a little south of east or 100/6 kt. The GFS and ECMWF global models show a mid-level ridge building west, then north, and then east-northeast of Jose over the next few days. As a result, it is expected that the system will execute an anticyclonic loop over the next 72 hours or so. Later in the forecast period, Jose is forecast to turn northward and north-northeastward while moving through a break in the ridge. For unknown reasons, the U.K. Met. Office model track continues to be well west and south of the other guidance. The official forecast track favors the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, but does not go as far to the north-northeast as the ECMWF near the end of the forecast period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 27.6N 67.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 27.1N 66.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 26.3N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 26.0N 65.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 26.2N 66.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 27.3N 69.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 30.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 32.5N 69.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Hurricane Jose Forecast Discussion Number 29

2017-09-12 16:47:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 121447 TCDAT2 Hurricane Jose Discussion Number 29 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 1100 AM AST Tue Sep 12 2017 The satellite presentation of Jose is that of a rather amorphous blob of deep convection, with only slight evidence of banding features. The system continues to be sheared by northwesterly flow associated with an upper-level anticyclone centered just to its west. A value of 65 kt is retained for the current intensity, in agreement with a Dvorak estimate from SAB. The dynamical models indicate that the shear over Jose will remain fairly strong for the next few days with perhaps some relaxation by days 3-5 as an upper-level high becomes situated over the system. Thus a little weakening in the short term, followed by some restrengthening later in the forecast period, is expected. Confidence in this intensity forecast is, however, lower than usual. Although the center is difficult to locate, a blend of geostationary and microwave fixes yield a slow eastward motion of around 090/4 kt. Jose is currently situated in a region of weak steering currents. The GFS and ECMWF global models build a mid-level anticyclone to the west of the tropical cyclone in a day or two. The anticyclone is then forecast to shift north, and then east, of Jose later in the forecast period. This evolution of the steering flow should result in the tropical cyclone moving in a clockwise loop over the next several days. Aside from the U.K. Met. Office prediction, which is well south and west of the other track models, the official forecast is near the left side of the guidance suite. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 68.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 27.2N 67.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 26.4N 66.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 25.7N 65.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.3N 66.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 26.0N 69.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 17/1200Z 30.0N 72.0W 70 KT 80 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Forecast Discussion Number 4

2017-09-12 16:45:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 121445 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Fifteen-E Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152017 800 AM PDT Tue Sep 12 2017 The first-light visible imagery from the GOES-16 satellite depicts a tightly wound low-level center with all of the deep convection west of the center. The initial intensity is set to 30 kt - just a bit higher than previously, based upon the TAFB Dvorak classification. The dislocation of the deep convection is symptomatic of the moderate to strong vertical shear, forced by the upper-level ridge to the north of the depression. Moderate shear should continue for the next couple of days, limiting the opportunity for the system to intensify. In about two days, the depression may begin interacting with a developing tropical cyclone to its east. One plausible scenario is for the system to be absorbed by the new tropical cyclone. The official forecast instead shows a gradual weakening as the depression tracks slowly westward, due to an increasingly hostile upper-level environment. The intensity forecast is a little above the previous one in respect to the slightly improved structure shown this morning and is closest to the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach. The depression is moving toward the west at 13 kt, primarily being steered by the deep-layer ridge to its north. The depression should continue moving in this general direction at a slower rate of forward speed during the next couple of days. At days three and four, the low-level steering flow should weaken due to the developing tropical cyclone to the depression's east. The official track forecast is based upon the model consensus minus the UKMET (whose tracker latches on to the developing tropical cyclone instead) and is east of that from the previous advisory. This track prediction has higher uncertainty than usual because of the divergence of plausible outcomes for the depression. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 15.6N 116.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 15.2N 117.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 14.9N 119.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 14.9N 120.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 15.1N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 15.6N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/1200Z 15.7N 123.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Landsea

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