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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-07 22:35:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 20:35:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 20:34:39 GMT
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nicole
Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2016-10-07 22:35:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 072034 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 15(27) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-07 22:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE A LITTLE WEAKER YET... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD... As of 5:00 PM AST Fri Oct 7 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.0, -65.2 with movement S at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 994 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 15
2016-10-07 22:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 072034 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 ...NICOLE A LITTLE WEAKER YET... ...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER WHILE MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 65.2W ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 185 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 65.2 West. Nicole is moving toward the south near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion with some reduction in forward speed is forecast through early Sunday. A slow west-northwestward or northwestward drift is expected later on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next day or so. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 15
2016-10-07 22:34:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 072034 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 65.2W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 65.2W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.2N 65.3W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 26.2N 65.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.1N 64.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.5N 65.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 27.4N 66.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 29.7N 66.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 32.6N 66.4W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 65.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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