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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Advisory Number 14
2016-10-07 16:33:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT25 KNHC 071433 TCMAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 65.3W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 65.3W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 65.2W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.1N 64.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 64.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.3N 65.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.6N 65.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 28.8N 66.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 32.0N 65.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-07 11:12:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 08:37:11 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 09:06:13 GMT
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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2016-10-07 10:36:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 070836 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 Nicole no longer has an eye in infrared satellite imagery, and the cloud pattern suggests that 30 kt of northwesterly shear is beginning to offset the deep convection to the southeast of the center. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB have decreased, so the initial intensity is set at 85 kt as a blend of the final-T and CI numbers. Strong vertical shear is expected to persist over Nicole, increasing and turning out of the north during the next several days. As a result, continued weakening is anticipated, and the intensity models indicate that Nicole's winds should gradually diminish in strength through day 4. By day 5, the vertical shear may decrease, and Nicole could regain some strength at the end of the forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows the ICON intensity consensus, which puts it slightly below the previous forecast for much of the forecast period. There has been no recent microwave data to help locate the center, but cloud motions suggest that Nicole is drifting southward. The overall steering currents are expected to remain weak for several more days. However, for the next 48 hours, Nicole will be situated between a digging shortwave trough and a mid-level high between it and Hurricane Matthew, which should cause Nicole to move slowly southward. After that time, the cyclone could be close enough to Matthew's circulation to cause it to turn northward. While the track models don't agree on how far south Nicole will move, they do all generally show the same solutions of very little net motion through five days. The updated NHC track is adjusted from the previous track forecast toward the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/0900Z 27.3N 65.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 07/1800Z 27.0N 65.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 08/0600Z 26.1N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 08/1800Z 25.2N 64.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 09/0600Z 24.8N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 10/0600Z 25.4N 65.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 11/0600Z 27.5N 66.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 12/0600Z 30.0N 66.5W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Hurricane NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2016-10-07 10:36:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 070835 PWSAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 0900 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 85 KTS...100 MPH...155 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 12(18) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Hurricane NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-07 10:36:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE WEAKENS A LITTLE WHILE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Oct 7 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.3, -65.2 with movement S at 1 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 100 mph.
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