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Tropical Storm NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2016-10-07 16:36:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 071436 TCDAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 Strong shear has taken its toll on Nicole overnight. The cyclone's cloud pattern has rapidly deteriorated, with the low-level center now exposed to the northwest of a greatly reduced area of deep convection. Dvorak Final T-numbers have decreased quickly to T3.5 from SAB and TAFB, and a blend of these and CI-numbers was used to set the initial intensity to 65 kt at 1200 UTC. Since the cloud pattern has degraded even further since that time, the advisory intensity is lowered to 60 kt, which could prove to be generous. Nicole has barely been moving, and the initial motion estimate is nearly stationary. Although Nicole remains in a region of weak steering at the moment, a blocking mid-level high should build north of the cyclone soon, and impart a slow motion generally toward the south for the next couple of days. Around 48 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to develop to the east of Nicole, which should result in the cyclone gradually turning northward with some increase in forward speed through the remainder of the forecast period. Most of the model guidance is in better agreement than yesterday on this scenario, which increases the overall confidence of the track forecast. The new track forecast is based on a consensus of the regional and global models minus the GFDL. A potent mid- to upper-level shortwave trough digging to the east of Nicole should cause deep-layer northerly shear over the cyclone to increase further today. In the wake of the shortwave, the shear should veer to the north-northeast but remain just as strong through about 72 hours. Nicole is also shown interacting with a lobe of vorticity that fractures from the shortwave, but it remains unclear how this interaction would affect the cyclone's intensity or structure. Regardless, the overall hostile environment should cause weakening, perhaps even more than indicated in this forecast. Indications are that late in the forecast period the large- scale environment should become more conducive for Nicole to re-intensify, but to what extent is in doubt. As a result of developments overnight, the new intensity forecast is substantially lower than the previous one and is below all of the intensity guidance through 72 hours. It is near the multi-model consensus after that time, although this part of the forecast is of low confidence. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 27.5N 65.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 27.0N 65.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 08/1200Z 26.1N 64.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 09/0000Z 25.4N 64.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 09/1200Z 25.3N 65.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 10/1200Z 26.6N 65.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 11/1200Z 28.8N 66.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 12/1200Z 32.0N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Graphics
2016-10-07 16:34:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 14:34:04 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 07 Oct 2016 14:33:35 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm NICOLE (AT5/AL152016)
2016-10-07 16:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...NICOLE RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...BARELY MOVING...BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SOON... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Oct 7 the center of NICOLE was located near 27.5, -65.3 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 985 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Public Advisory Number 14
2016-10-07 16:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 000 WTNT35 KNHC 071433 TCPAT5 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1100 AM AST FRI OCT 07 2016 ...NICOLE RAPIDLY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...BARELY MOVING...BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD SOON... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.5N 65.3W ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM S OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 65.3 West. Nicole is stationary, but is expected to begin a slow southward or south- southeastward motion later today and continue on Saturday. A westward drift could begin by early Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have rapidly decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely during the next couple of days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells associated with Nicole, along with rough surf conditions, should continue to affect Bermuda for the next few days. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm NICOLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2016-10-07 16:34:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 FONT15 KNHC 071433 PWSAT5 TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NICOLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) BERMUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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