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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-07-03 10:41:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030840 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.5W AT 03/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 107.5W AT 03/0900Z AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 107.3W FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.8N 107.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.2N 110.7W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.5N 113.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 107.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane DALILA Graphics
2013-07-03 05:07:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2013 02:38:33 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2013 03:03:43 GMT
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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-07-03 04:40:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030240 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DALILA HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH THE CYCLONE STILL MAINTAINING A SMALL AND FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO. A 0016 UTC SSMI/S PASS DID... HOWEVER...SHOW A SLIGHT DEGRADATION OF THE INNER CORE...WITH THE EYEWALL OPEN TO THE EAST. THE MID-LEVEL CENTER ALSO WAS DISPLACED NORTHWEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER...SUGGESTING THAT SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 65 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH A TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0/65 KT. THE STATISTICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS DALILA CHANGING LITTLE IN STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS...EVEN THOUGH THE HURRICANE SHOULD BE PASSING OVER RELATIVELY WARM WATERS. THE MAIN OBSTACLE TO ANY FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY RELATED TO MODERATE EAST- SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR FORECAST TO PREVAIL OVER THE CYCLONE. THE ECMWF SHOWS DALILA QUICKLY WEAKENING AS A RESULT OF THE ENTRAINMENT OF A LAYER OF DRY AIR TO THE WEST OF DALILA. IT IS DIFFICULT...HOWEVER...TO IMAGINE THIS SCENARIO...GIVEN THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CONTINUES TO LEAN ON THE GFS-BASED MODEL GUIDANCE AND IS NEAR A BLEND OF THE SHIPS/LGEM THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THEN NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS BEYOND THAT TIME. DALILA IS NOT MOVING MUCH. A LONG-TERM AVERAGE OF SATELLITE FIXES YIELDS A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/02. HOWEVER...RECENT MICROWAVE FIXES SUGGEST THAT A WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT MAY HAVE COMMENCED. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO HAS TEMPORARILY WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CREATED A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT OVER THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...THE STRONG HEAT RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE DALILA TO TURN SOUTH OF WEST WITH SOME MINOR INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS DIVERSE...WITH THE ECMWF STILL FORECASTING A WEAK CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATING. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST CONTINUES TO WEIGH THE GFS SOLUTION MORE...AND IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND CLOSER TO THE GFS LATE IN THE PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 18.3N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.1N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 17.7N 108.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 17.4N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 17.4N 109.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 17.6N 111.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-03 04:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA DRIFTING WESTWARD... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Jul 2 the center of DALILA was located near 18.3, -107.3 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane DALILA Public Advisory Number 14
2013-07-03 04:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030237 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 PM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 ...DALILA DRIFTING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.3W ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. DALILA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DALILA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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