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Hurricane DALILA Graphics
2013-07-03 11:07:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2013 08:43:34 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 03 Jul 2013 09:03:46 GMT
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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 15
2013-07-03 10:42:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 030842 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTED THAT THE CORE CONVECTION OF DALILA HAD AGAIN BECOME SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED...POSSIBLY DUE TO SHEAR INDICATED BY CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE CYCLONE FROM THE EAST. HOWEVER...THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES REMAIN PERSISTENTLY NEAR OR COLDER THAN -80C...AND THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE NOT CHANGED DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY THUS REMAINS 65 KT...ALTHOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS IS GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 225/2. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR THE MODEL GUIDANCE SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD BUILD SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SOUTH OF EASTERN MEXICO MOVES TOWARD DALILA. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FOR 36 HOURS OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A WESTWARD MOTION. THE GUIDANCE BECOMES QUITE DIVERSE AFTER 72 HOURS...WITH FORECAST TRACKS SPREAD BETWEEN A SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION AND A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION. THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK WILL SHOW A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE ECMWF...UKMET...AND CANADIAN MODELS FORECAST DALILA TO DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DURING THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS...WHILE THE GFS AND NAVGEM MODEL SHOW IT SURVIVING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR LOW PRESSURE AREA FOR 5 DAYS. THE DISSIPATION SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SEEN NEAR THE CYCLONE IN MICROWAVE DATA...WHILE THE SURVIVAL SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DURING THE FIRST 3 DAYS OF THE NEW FORECAST TRACK. THE INTENSITY FORECAST GOES WITH THE SURVIVAL SCENARIO...CALLING FOR DALILA TO MAINTAIN HURRICANE STRENGTH FOR 24 HOURS WITH GRADUAL WEAKENING THEREAFTER. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TWEAKED SLIGHTLY TO MATCH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 18.1N 107.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 17.8N 107.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 17.4N 108.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 17.2N 109.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 17.2N 110.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 17.5N 113.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 18.0N 115.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 18.5N 117.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Hurricane DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2013-07-03 10:41:37| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030841 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 2 4 12 29 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 6 12 22 39 48 TROPICAL STORM 44 48 59 60 63 46 22 HURRICANE 56 50 34 26 12 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 53 42 28 21 11 3 1 HUR CAT 2 3 6 5 4 1 X X HUR CAT 3 X 2 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 3( 3) 12(15) 13(28) 7(35) 1(36) X(36) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 15(18) 7(25) 1(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Hurricane DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-03 10:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... As of 2:00 AM PDT Wed Jul 3 the center of DALILA was located near 18.1, -107.5 with movement SW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane DALILA Public Advisory Number 15
2013-07-03 10:41:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 030841 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DALILA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 200 AM PDT WED JUL 03 2013 ...DALILA DRIFTING SOUTHWESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 107.5W ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.5 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WEST- SOUTHWESTWARD OR SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.... FOLLOWED BY SLOW WEAKENING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DALILA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 AM PDT. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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