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Hurricane DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-07-03 04:38:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 030237 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DALILA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X X 1 1 2 14 31 TROP DEPRESSION X 2 4 8 11 39 48 TROPICAL STORM 45 49 50 58 62 44 21 HURRICANE 55 49 46 32 26 3 1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 52 42 36 25 22 3 1 HUR CAT 2 3 6 7 5 3 X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 2 1 X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 65KT 65KT 60KT 60KT 40KT 30KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) P VALLARTA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 20(32) 14(46) 1(47) X(47) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 8(14) 1(15) X(15) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 13(15) 10(25) 1(26) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 14
2013-07-03 04:36:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 030236 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0300 UTC WED JUL 03 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.3W AT 03/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.3W AT 03/0300Z AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.2W FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 107.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.7N 108.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.4N 108.9W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.4N 109.9W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.6N 111.9W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 114.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 107.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-07-02 20:04:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021804 TCDEP4 HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 THIS IS A SPECIAL ADVISORY TO REVISE THE INTENSITY OF DALILA. A COUPLE OF MICROWAVE PASSES INDICATED A LOW-LEVEL EYE...AND A FAINT EYE IS SEEN IN HIGH-RESOLUTION VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. BASED ON THESE IMAGES...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE. BASED ON THE NUMERICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...NOT MUCH ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED...AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN WEAKENING IN A DAY OR SO AS IT INTERACTS WITH DRIER AIR AND THE DEVELOPING CYCLONIC CIRCULATION TO ITS EAST. THE CENTER POSITION IS SOMEWHAT TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK...SO THE FORECAST TRACK IS ADJUSTED NORTHWARD A LITTLE. OTHERWISE THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1800Z 18.3N 107.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Hurricane DALILA Graphics
2013-07-02 20:04:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2013 18:01:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2013 18:00:43 GMT
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Hurricane DALILA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-07-02 20:04:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 021803 PWSEP4 HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1800 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED X 1 2 3 11 27 47 TROP DEPRESSION X 3 11 19 36 46 42 TROPICAL STORM 45 67 65 62 49 27 11 HURRICANE 55 30 22 16 4 1 X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 52 26 18 14 4 1 X HUR CAT 2 3 3 3 2 X X X HUR CAT 3 X 1 1 1 X X X HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 65KT 60KT 55KT 50KT 40KT 30KT 20KT II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SAN BLAS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) P VALLARTA 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 2 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) MANZANILLO 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 1 2( 3) 7(10) 9(19) 7(26) 2(28) X(28) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) ISLAS MARIAS 34 2 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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