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Summary for Hurricane DALILA (EP4/EP042013)
2013-07-02 20:03:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DALILA NOW A HURRICANE... As of 11:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 2 the center of DALILA was located near 18.3, -107.1 with movement WNW at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.
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Hurricane DALILA Public Advisory Number 12
2013-07-02 20:03:34| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 021803 TCPEP4 BULLETIN HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1100 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 ...DALILA NOW A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 107.1W ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DALILA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.1 WEST. DALILA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 2 MPH...4 KM/H. A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITHIN A DAY OR SO. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY DALILA ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ZIHUATANEJO TO CABO CORRIENTES. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 PM PDT. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Hurricane DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 12
2013-07-02 20:00:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1800 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 021800 TCMEP4 HURRICANE DALILA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 1800 UTC TUE JUL 02 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.1W AT 02/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 107.1W AT 02/1800Z AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 18.2N 107.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 107.7W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.8N 108.4W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.6N 109.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.0N 110.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 107.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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Tropical Storm DALILA Graphics
2013-07-02 16:33:40| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2013 14:33:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 02 Jul 2013 14:32:47 GMT
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Tropical Storm DALILA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2013-07-02 16:33:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 021432 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 02 2013 THE CENTER OF DALILA IS HIDDEN BENEATH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AND HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. A 0319 UTC SSM/I IMAGE SHOWED THAT THE CENTER WAS DISPLACED NEARLY HALF A DEGREE SOUTH OF THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION...HOWEVER NO MICROWAVE IMAGES OF THE CENTER HAVE BEEN AVAILABLE SINCE THAT TIME. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 270/2. A SLOW MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS DALILA REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING FLOW. THE GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS BUILDING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OF DALILA. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE SPREAD AMONG THE DYNAMICAL MODELS REMAINS HIGH AFTER 48 HOURS. THE ECMWF FORECASTS THAT A LAYER OF MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN DALILA...AND THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANTS WILL MOVE ALMOST DUE SOUTH. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS FORECASTS THAT THE DRY AIR WILL NOT ENTRAIN INTO THE CENTER OF DALILA...AND A DEEPER VORTEX WILL TRACK WESTWARD AFTER 48 HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE...HOWEVER...THAT CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROCESSES ARE ARTIFICIALLY MOISTENING THE NEAR-STORM ENVIRONMENT IN THE GFS. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SOUTHWARD...A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FORECAST...AND IS ROUGHLY A CONSENSUS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 55 KT...BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS OF 3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB. MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DALILA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WIND SHEAR. MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT THE ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST...AND NOW CALLS FOR DALILA TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 120 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 17.7N 106.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 107.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 17.4N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 17.2N 108.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 17.0N 109.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 16.7N 110.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER PASCH/ZELINSKY
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