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Hurricane EDOUARD Public Advisory Number 20
2014-09-16 10:44:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 000 WTNT31 KNHC 160844 TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 500 AM AST TUE SEP 16 2014 ...EDOUARD MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.2N 57.3W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 57.3 WEST. EDOUARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ACCELERATION TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT THEN WEAKENING IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 963 MB...28.44 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Hurricane EDOUARD Graphics
2014-09-16 05:10:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 02:38:03 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 16 Sep 2014 03:05:47 GMT
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Hurricane EDOUARD Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-09-16 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 160240 TCDAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 1100 PM AST MON SEP 15 2014 Edouard has not strengthened further. While the eye has become somewhat better defined and warmer since the last advisory, deep convection in the central dense overcast is not quite as cold. The intensification phase that the cyclone was experiencing earlier may have been interrupted by 15-20 kt of southeasterly shear as analyzed by the SHIPS model output and UW-CIMSS analyses. Dvorak intensity estimates remain a consensus T5.0/90 kt from TAFB and SAB, while UW-CIMSS CI values are around T5.6/105kt. A blend of these data is used to hold the initial intensity at 95 kt. Edouard still has another 24-36 hours to intensify. Moderately strong southeasterly shear, resulting from the flow between a low to the southwest and a high to the east at upper levels, is forecast to decrease as Edouard nears its point of recurvature. Near and immediately after that time, the shear and motion vectors should align, which tends to favor more symmetric convection. These favorable factors, despite gradually cooler waters beneath the cyclone, should allow Edouard to reach major hurricane status. Drastically cooler waters and a substantial increase in southwesterly shear beyond 48 hours suggest that a rapid decay of the cyclone should occur by that time. Interaction with a baroclinic zone in 2-3 days should cause the beginning of extratropical transition, but this process is expected to become interrupted when the cyclone shears apart and outruns this weather system. Edouard is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone in 96 hours, if not slightly sooner, and gradually spin down over the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC wind speed forecast is the same as the previous one through 48 hours and is above all of the intensity guidance. The forecast is lowered relative to the last advisory after that time and is near the multi-model consensus IVCN. Edouard has recently turned north-northwestward and the initial motion estimate is now 335/11. The track guidance remains in excellent agreement through 72 hours. The cyclone is expected to turn northward in 12-18 hours when it rounds the western periphery of a subtropical ridge. An acceleration toward the northeast, and then east-northeast, is expected beyond 24 hours as Edouard is captured by a relatively fast-paced westerly flow over the north Atlantic. Near the end of the forecast period, the increasingly shallow vortex should turn eastward and southeastward within the flow on the west side of a deep-layer low over the northeast Atlantic. The track guidance has shifted noticeably to the left on this cycle. However, to maintain continuity, the new NHC track forecast is only nudged to the left of the previous one, and lies on the far right side of the guidance envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 29.0N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 17/0000Z 32.8N 56.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 17/1200Z 35.5N 54.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 18/0000Z 38.1N 50.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 19/0000Z 40.9N 41.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 20/0000Z 40.0N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 21/0000Z 38.6N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Hurricane EDOUARD Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2014-09-16 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 160240 PWSAT1 HURRICANE EDOUARD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014 0300 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EDOUARD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT SANTA CRUZ AZO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 7(12) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Summary for Hurricane EDOUARD (AT1/AL062014)
2014-09-16 04:37:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...EDOUARD TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST... ...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY... As of 11:00 PM AST Mon Sep 15 the center of EDOUARD was located near 29.0, -56.9 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 963 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 110 mph.
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